We are now in the final stages of an economic boom that began in March 2009. When it is over, and it will be eventually, stocks will fall together, but fiscally responsible companies less so than leveraged ones. For today we will use the example of William Hill, an increasingly attractive income investment benefiting greatly from the boom, but first a word on strategy in general.
All equity markets are now in parabolic mode from a decade of record-breaking money printing across the Earth. Futures in the US are up again this morning. It’s seemingly relentless. For the next 3 to 6 months, it should be easy to make money in most sectors, gaming included.
The most challenging part of 2018 will be selling when you’re euphoric about your gains and every instinct tells you to just keep holding and counting your paper profits. This is not a wonderful idea, as ideas go. My suggestion for this year, and it won’t be easy, speaking for myself mostly: Set three or four hard, realistic numbers in three to four stages for scaling out of stocks, and stick to them. After you sell, don’t look back to see how much profit you missed, because you will miss and it won’t be worth counting how much. You’ll just be tempted to go right back in as danger increases.
For example, for any particular stock you own, scale out of, say, 20% when you reach 20% profit, 30% when you reach 30% profit, and then 60% when you reach 60% profit or some such similar calculation. Pick a theoretical high for each and scale out as you get near it, basically. Committing to holding a small percentage come what may is fine. Just make sure that you’ll be emotionally OK holding whatever percentage you commit to no matter the losses. In other words, make sure you’re not risking all or even most of your gains.
