I was reading a post in a poker forum the other day. In it, a newbie wrote about a bad beat he suffered, and asked for advice on dealing with the funk he was in because of it. One of the more experienced and intelligent members of the forum, trying to be helpful, wrote back “Just remember that luck evens out over time.”

When it comes to luck, it’s as much about how you look as it is how you feel. (Image: Gaby Stein/Pixabay)

It’s a comforting salve to be sure, this oft-repeated phrase. And, surely, it can help players avoid going on tilt after a bad beat — I don’t fault anyone for saying it. Yet even as I admit the comforting effects of such an utterance, I know that “Luck will even out in the long run” is also one of the greatest fallacies in poker.

Luck Rarely Evens Out