If Donald Trump’s approval rating has ever gone north of 50%, it hasn’t lasted for very long due to the divisive and partisan nature of American politics. However, thanks to the U.S. Presidential election system’s reliance on the Electoral College, his odds to win reelection have been favorable for the past couple of years, that is until Joe Biden recently surpassed him in the polls. MyBookie was kind enough to share a history of Trump’s odds stretching back to September, 2018, to explore how important events have affected these odds.

Lost elections hurt Trump’s odds.

The important event in September 18 that starts our history is when Trump began his battle with the NFL over some players kneeling during the national anthem. At that point, his odds to win reelection were -103. He quickly slid to +100 by November of that year, when he was threatening to shut down the government over spending on his border wall, and the Democrats had just won the House of Representatives.

Trump is the Teflon Don in 2019