EU Vote Outcome Comes down to Turnout

Washington DC (23rd June 2016) – On polling day, the Leave campaign has a three percent lead over the Remain campaign, according to a new Democracy Institute poll conducted during the final four days of campaigning.

This latest poll suggests that the referendum outcome remains very close, with support for a Brexit — Britain leaving the EU – at 50 percent, up from 47 percent in the previous DI poll last month. The Remain vote is 47 percent for the second consecutive month. Only three percent of voters are undecided.

“Leave voters have been heavily influenced by events during the course of the referendum campaign,” according to poll director Patrick Basham. The poll found, for example, that “the new migration statistics, which put Prime Minister David Cameron on the defensive, had an influence upon 28 percent of those intending to vote Leave.” Positive reviews for the televised performances of the principal Leave proponents – Michael Gove’s Sky News Q&A and Boris Johnson’s Wembley Arena performance on the BBC – each influenced one in ten Leave voters.