Some games of football take on added significance due to events off the football pitch. Think of Iran taking on the U.S.A. at the World Cup in 1998, which was dubbed the “most politically charged game in World Cup history” at the time. Politics of a different sort are the backdrop for one of the Champions League game this midweek, but just like last week, when we tipped Borussia Dortmund to beat Paris St. Germain 2-1 at odds of 10/1, there is value to be had.

Chelsea vs. Bayern Munich (Tuesday, 8pm GMT kick-off)

An intriguing clash at Stamford Bridge sees the West London outfit head into the game as distinct outsiders to progress in the tie. While Frank Lampard’s side sit in 4th place in the Premier League, they have lost nine times in a league season, which with 11 games still to play, does not bode well for the visit of the Bundesliga leaders, who have scored 65 goals in their 23 league games to date.

In Robert Lewandowski, Munich have the sort of striker that Chelsea have coveted since the first retirement of Didier Drogba. Strong as an ox, deft of touch and clinical to a fault, the Polish poacher is the man they will watch for. But in Serge Gnabry, Munich also have a very talented second striker, and we think he can shadow behind Lewandowski to devastating effect.