After one of the wildest opening weekends in March Madness history where upsets abounded and two of the number-two seeds went home way too early, it’s hard to remember one of the salient truths about making Sweet 16 picks. I know it seems counterintuitive, but the fact remains that the favorites are a better pick overall.

Need some convincing? Sure you do. Let’s look at last year.

Wisconsin was a -6.0 point favorite against an overachieving UNC team last season, and won 79-72. Louisville pulled off another cover as narrow favorites, with a -2.5 line to cover against NC State during a 75-65 victory.

Duke also escaped against Utah as -4.5 favorites with a 63-57 win while Gonzaga ripped apart UCLA 74-62 with a daunting -8.5 point spread. In one of the tightest lines out there, the lightly favored Michigan State Spartans edged Oklahoma 62-58 in a virtual pick ‘em.