There are three things gaming investors should keep in mind about Brexit before making any investment decisions. First, the likelihood of Brexit is very small. Betfair puts the odds at 78% remain. The chances are very small because the European Union already has many terminal stress fractures that will eventually doom it, and letting any one of these develop into a bona fide breakage will put an end to the political union fairly quickly. The powers that be will do everything possible to keep it together until the money runs out, and they won’t let a silly thing like a referendum get in their way.
No, there probably won’t be any systemic voter fraud, but Even if Britons voted to leave, Parliament would still have to approve the Brexit. Likely some crisis would suddenly pop up demanding “national unity among Europeans” and the UK’s exit, even if it passes on Thursday, would be indefinitely postponed for “national security” reasons. War, another debt crisis flare up, or if heaven forbid some copycat shoots up a nightclub in England, Brexit would be halted. The terrible murder of Jo Cox over the weekend almost did derail the entire vote as it is. The point is, the referendum is a farce, just like last year’s Greek referendum to accept or reject the Eurozone bailout package was a farce. The Greeks rejected the bailout and it was forced down their throats anyway.
Second, whether the United Kingdom votes to stay or leave, stocks will continue doing what they were doing before the vote. Third, no matter what the vote ends up being, gaming regulations will only be tightened, because that’s what governments generally do anyway. So if you’re hoping Brexit will lighten regulatory burdens on bookies, forget it.
Licensing specialist David Clifton said as much during a panel session at the conference of the International Association of Gaming Advisors in Malta this month: