The Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump begins today, February 9, 2021. Accused of “incitement of insurrection,” the 100 senators will hear arguments from Democratic House Managers and a Republican Congessional defense, with a brand new team of lawyers to defend Trump. How many senators will vote to convict?

The trial itself is interesting in a way, because nearly everyone involved would have been in the Capitol when insurrectionists stormed the building on January 6; the crime that led to this impeachment. So the senators being asked to pass judgement are victims of the crime. But the popular debate has not so much been around whether Trump is guilty, but rather whether America should heal and move on.

To convince Republicans, Democrats are expected to show plenty of video evidence, reminding the senate of what it felt like on that tumultuous day. Trump’s defense is expected to argue that, with Trump already out of office, the impeachment is unconstitutional. However, it’s been rumored that Trump fired his first legal team for refusing to push the 2020 election hoax angle he preferred.

In Trump’s first impeachment trial, Utah Senator Mitt Romney was the sole Republican to vote to convict, and he’s likely to do the same again, making the “50 or fewer” betting option such a long shot. But who will join him?