After a completely underwhelming wild card weekend, the divisional round playoff betting matchups have to be better. The matchups are certainly salivating. Logic usually dictates that the favorites are the ones to back here, and I’ve pretty much gone chalk outside of the first game. Are we bound for more surprises, or will the oddsmakers hit the nail on the head yet again with this weekend’s slate?

Odds Courtesy of OddsShark.com

Seattle Seahawks +5.0 over Atlanta Falcons (Saturday, 4:35pm EST)

There are a lot of reasons to bet on Atlanta. They ranked top-10 all-time in offence this past season. Yes – ALL TIME. Matt Ryan should win the MVP for putting up the numbers that he did, but the playoffs are a different animal.

The Kansas City Chiefs took advantage of a season-ending injury to Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to win the AFC West and earn a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

Now the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid will try to pick up a much-needed home win in the postseason when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers as slim one-point favorites in Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs were routed 43-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs in the first meeting with the Steelers in Week 4 and will need to play much better defensively in order to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993.

The Kansas City Chiefs took advantage of a season-ending injury to Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to win the AFC West and earn a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

Now the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid will try to pick up a much-needed home win in the postseason when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers as slim one-point favorites in Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs were routed 43-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs in the first meeting with the Steelers in Week 4 and will need to play much better defensively in order to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993.

If you considered the recent postseason success of the Seattle Seahawks, including two Super Bowl trips in the previous three years, you might be surprised to find out that they have lost eight straight games in the playoffs as road underdogs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Atlanta Falcons will try to extend that streak to nine and win for just the second time in seven postseason games themselves on Saturday when they host the Seahawks as five-point home favorites in the first NFC Divisional Round matchup.

Atlanta beat out Seattle for the second seed in the conference and home-field advantage in Week 17 with a 38-32 win over the New Orleans Saints. Now the Falcons hope to cash in on that edge and end a six-game skid against the spread in the playoffs.

If you considered the recent postseason success of the Seattle Seahawks, including two Super Bowl trips in the previous three years, you might be surprised to find out that they have lost eight straight games in the playoffs as road underdogs.

courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Atlanta Falcons will try to extend that streak to nine and win for just the second time in seven postseason games themselves on Saturday when they host the Seahawks as five-point home favorites in the first NFC Divisional Round matchup.

Atlanta beat out Seattle for the second seed in the conference and home-field advantage in Week 17 with a 38-32 win over the New Orleans Saints. Now the Falcons hope to cash in on that edge and end a six-game skid against the spread in the playoffs.

If you’re looking for a monster preview of the divisional round in the NFL playoffs, then I have just the thing for you. I’ve stacked all the teams in descending order based on their odds to win Super Bowl LI. Need to know where and how to invest your money in the NFL futures market? I’ve got you covered.

In general, the numbers haven’t shifted all that much in terms of outright value. The Dallas Cowboys went from +150 as NFC Championships to +140, while the New England Patriots stayed at +180 as the reigning Super Bowl LI favorites (I mistakenly wrote +190 last week).

Later this week I’ll have my matchup breakdowns for the divisional round, but for now let’s take a look at the eight teams still standing after a chaotic 2016 campaign, and a wildly boring wild card weekend.

8. HOUSTON TEXANS

If you’re looking for a monster preview of the divisional round in the NFL playoffs, then I have just the thing for you. I’ve stacked all the teams in descending order based on their odds to win Super Bowl LI. Need to know where and how to invest your money in the NFL futures market? I’ve got you covered.

In general, the numbers haven’t shifted all that much in terms of outright value. The Dallas Cowboys went from +150 as NFC Championships to +140, while the New England Patriots stayed at +180 as the reigning Super Bowl LI favorites (I mistakenly wrote +190 last week).

Later this week I’ll have my matchup breakdowns for the divisional round, but for now let’s take a look at the eight teams still standing after a chaotic 2016 campaign, and a wildly boring wild card weekend.

8. HOUSTON TEXANS

If you’re looking for an era-specific look book on the quality of past wild card weekend, you’ve come to the wrong place. There’s no need to do a deep dive on historical consequence. I can tell you that a round of NFL playoff betting that is set to feature Connor Cook, Brock Osweiler and Matt Moore is by far the worst version of the playoffs that we’ve seen in a long, long time.

Which, as it turns out, leads to many people vastly overthinking the matchups themselves. The odds makers have been somewhat brazen with the lines given that the buffet of craptastic talent we’ve been handed. There’s always an inherent fear when betting for and against weak quarterback talent, but that doesn’t mean you should drastically change the way you bet. You still have to measure things statistically to some degree, and run with your intuition the rest of the way.

The lazy thing to do during Wild Card weekend is to bet on the underdogs, and then switch course next weekend during the divisional round. I don’t necessarily like doing that because I’m a handicapper and a lunatic. So if you need some help navigating the swamp that is this weekend’s NFL betting round, I’m here to throw a thousand words right in between your eyes.

And for whatever it’s worth: Alabama -6.5 over Clemson in the OVER.

The 2017 NFL Futures have been released by our friends at Bovada, and I’m here to take a deep dive in to what’s going to be an intriguing set of plays you can make in this market. It does seem like the AFC is relatively spoken for, while the NFC is anyone’s guess. Some people love to sprinkle their money around randomly. Me? I like to be a bit more precise.

NFL FUTURES – 2017 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

The AFC playoff table looks like a cruel joke on football fans. The worst part is that the “big news” in the lead up to wild card weekend is about which crappy quarterback is going to start for which crappy team. Can I please read more about Matt Moore and Ryan Tannehill? Is Tom Savage better than Brock Osweiler?! Does any of this matter?!

The sad truth is that the long game of the AFC – and that of the Super Bowl – pretty much goes through the top two teams in the conference. That would be New England (-500 to win AFC) and Kansas City (+450 to win AFC). Honestly, I could do a major deep dive on my preference, but a hedge play on Kansas City here seems like the smartest play if you’re going to take the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

Listen, I don’t know what the hell is going on. We’re looking at an AFC Wild Card playoff round that’s going to star Matt McGloin, Tom Savage and Matt Moore. What is happening here?!

Just so everyone knows, all the games are on New Years Day with the night game being flexed to a divisional title matchup between Green Bay and Detroit. Week 17 usually doesn’t ever mean much, and I’m not sure if this one will either. I’m in the same boat as most of you are – I just wan to get to championship weekend, enjoy the Super Bowl and then pretend that this season never happened.

1. New England Patriots (13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS)

Everyone in New England is making a big push for Tom Brady as the MVP of the league, but you’re going to be hard pressed to get Roger Goodell to sign off on that. Oh you don’t think he would flex his muscle to block that award? Get real.

The Kansas City Chiefs drag a couple of negative trends into their meeting with the desperate Denver Broncos on Christmas night. The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Broncos with a 37.5-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Kansas City is 10-2 straight-up but 4-8 against the spread over its last 12 home games. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Kansas City.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver, at 8-6 SU and ATS, is at risk of missing the playoffs. An offensive line which has allowed 40 sacks – and faces pass rushers such as DE Chris Jones and OLB Dee Ford on Sunday – and a 27th-ranked run game have held back the progress of first-year starting QB Trevor Siemian. The Broncos have 11 lost fumbles this season and Kansas City is +13 in takeaways, so that could work against Denver as well.

For only the third time in the Eli Manning era, the New York Giants are favored on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Giants are listed as three-point favorites against the Eagles with a 41.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup. The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of three points or fewer, but the Eagles are also in a rut in divisional games – 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against NFC East teams.

The Giants, who are 10-4 SU and 7-5-2 ATS, will face some challenges when they have the ball on Thursday. New York’s offensive line often struggles to open running lanes, and while they have allowed just 21 sacks much of that stems from Manning’s quick release. The Eagles also have some marauding defenders such as DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and DE Vince Curry who can bring pressure from many angles.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 74.8 yards in five career games against Philadelphia. If Manning’s protection is strong, the Giants should be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ pass coverage. Philadelphia lacks depth at cornerback and allows 7.7 yards per pass, seventh-worst in the league.

For only the third time in the Eli Manning era, the New York Giants are favored on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Giants are listed as three-point favorites against the Eagles with a 41.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup. The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of three points or fewer, but the Eagles are also in a rut in divisional games – 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against NFC East teams.

The Giants, who are 10-4 SU and 7-5-2 ATS, will face some challenges when they have the ball on Thursday. New York’s offensive line often struggles to open running lanes, and while they have allowed just 21 sacks much of that stems from Manning’s quick release. The Eagles also have some marauding defenders such as DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and DE Vince Curry who can bring pressure from many angles.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 74.8 yards in five career games against Philadelphia. If Manning’s protection is strong, the Giants should be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ pass coverage. Philadelphia lacks depth at cornerback and allows 7.7 yards per pass, seventh-worst in the league.

Another week of total, non-stop mayhem and we are nowhere closer to figuring out who the real top teams in the league. Seattle, Dallas and New England are the only teams that have clinched their division and there’s just two more weeks to go. This is absolutely awesome. The best part? Games on Christmas Day! All other games are on Christmas Eve Day (December 24th) starting at 1pm EST and 4pm EST.

1. New England Patriots (12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS)

If Brady wins a fifth Super Bowl with this otherwise no-name team, then the conversation about him being the GOAT is simply over (if it isn’t already). And yes they deserve to be favored by every measure.

Next Game: NYJ at New England -16.5

Another week of total, non-stop mayhem and we are nowhere closer to figuring out who the real top teams in the league. Seattle, Dallas and New England are the only teams that have clinched their division and there’s just two more weeks to go. This is absolutely awesome. The best part? Games on Christmas Day! All other games are on Christmas Eve Day (December 24th) starting at 1pm EST and 4pm EST.

1. New England Patriots (12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS)

If Brady wins a fifth Super Bowl with this otherwise no-name team, then the conversation about him being the GOAT is simply over (if it isn’t already). And yes they deserve to be favored by every measure.

Next Game: NYJ at New England -16.5

Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins need to continue their history of not faltering against sub-.500 teams in order to preserve their playoff hopes. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Washington is listed as a six-point favorite against the visiting Carolina Panthers with a 51-point total in the Monday Night Football matchup. Washington is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with losing records while Carolina is 0-6 straight-up in their last six road games against teams with winning records.

Carolina, which is 5-8 SU and 4-7-2 ATS, is just playing out the string, so how focused Cam Newton and Co. will be is hard to predict. Newton has been resting his arm in practice after having an MRI on his right shoulder, but it’s doubtful he would not play. On paper, there is potential for the Panthers offense to be productive. Newton’s favorite receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, will likely occupy the attention of shutdown CB Josh Norman, but teams can pick on CB Bashaud Breeland and CB Kendall Fuller.

The Redskins allow 4.5 yards per rush (28th in the NFL), so Carolina should be able to create some lanes for veteran Jonathan Stewart. That said, the Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games.

History suggests Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys could break a three-game skid against the spread when they face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which is on a five-game winning streak. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Cowboys are listed as the seven-point favorite against the Buccaneers with a 47-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Dallas is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more, as well as 18-6 SU in their last 24 home games after consecutive road games.

The Buccaneers, whose five-game roll includes wins against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, are 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. Quarterback Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans help furnish Tampa Bay with a much better passing game than that of the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants, whom Dallas held to a combined 25 points in its last two games. This is a major test for Winston, though, but for most of the season he’s been able to prop up a one-dimensional offense.

The disparity between the Bucs’ passing and running games could be even more pronounced this week. Led by OLB Sean Lee, the Cowboys have a fierce run defense. They can have lapses in pass coverage and might struggle to stop underrated TE Cameron Brate.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are facing their largest point spread in three seasons as they take on the beleaguered Los Angeles Rams. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

With the Rams installing Jim Fassel as interim coach after finally axing Jeff Fisher, the Seahawks are now listed as a 16-point favorite against Los Angeles with 39-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup.

Since the start of Wilson’s career, the Seahawks are 17-1 straight-up and 10-7-1 against the spread when favored by at least 10 points.

Los Angeles, which is 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS, has been a 16-point underdog only twice in the last 20 seasons. For what it is worth, the Rams did not cover either time. The Rams are dead last in points and yards per game and have had difficulty springing RB Todd Gurley into the open field. Seattle MLB Bobby Wagner is also one of the best run defenders in the league, so another long night for Gurley apparently beckons.

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr’s struggles against the Kansas City Chiefs, at least according to oddsmakers, apparently override the Chiefs’ recent against-the-spread struggles at Arrowhead Stadium.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

In a game that could decide the AFC West title, the Chiefs are listed as three-point favorites against the Raiders with a 46.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup.