Andrew Luck should be back on Monday, but the Indianapolis Colts are carrying some baggage – specifically, a bad game from their receivers in Week 12 and an iffy track record on the betting lines in games against the New York Jets.

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The Colts are expected to be favored on the road against the Jets in the Monday Night Football matchup, based on a consensus of betting lines. While the Jets are going nowhere fast this season, they are both 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against Indianapolis as well as 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in December.

The Colts, who are 5-6 straight up and 5-5-1 ATS, should have Luck back after he missed their November 25 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers due to a concussion. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has struggled in matchups against Jets CB Darrelle Revis, but Revis’ play has tailed off this season.

While sparkplug rookie QB Dak Prescott wasn’t around at the time, the Dallas Cowboys have had their difficulties against the Minnesota Vikings over the years.

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The NFC-leading Cowboys are listed as four-point favorites on the road against the reeling Vikings with a 44-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup. On the moneyline, Dallas pays -180 for a straight-up win and Minnesota is a home underdog at +160.

The Cowboys are 2-7 straight-up and 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games against the Vikings, whose coach, Mike Zimmer, might have some motivation to dial up a defensive game plan against one of his former teams.

Due to a technical glitch on my part, I wasn’t able to get you last week’s power rankings. There’s been some wild, landscape shifting wins over the last two weeks so we’ll get down to organizing things in a gambling-centric manner. But let’s all recognize that no team is safe in the 2016 NFL betting season.

Is Dallas really that much better than the Giants? Are you sure? How much better is New England than the resurgent Raiders? Are the Bucs that far behind anyone? Could they beat the Chiefs?

We always preach for parity and now we have it. The result? Absolutely terrible football. Somebody please sign Kevin Durant in the offseason and make me a super team! I want my football back!

Dallas Cowboys (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS)

Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders, just as they did prior to their bye week, will try to prevail in a matchup of opposites when they face the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football.

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The Raiders are listed as the six-point favorite against the Texans with a 46-point total in the Monday Night Football betting matchup at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. An Oakland cover pays -115, while a Houston cover pays -105.

The Raiders are on a three-game winning streak but are just 4-14 straight-up in their last 18 games after consecutive wins. The Texans are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.5 points or more.

Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins are just a slim favorite against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, even though they have been trending in a much more positive direction.

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Washington is listed as the three-point favorite against visiting Green Bay with a 50.5 total. The Packers are listed at -125 to cover, while the Redskins pay +105 if they reward backers by beating the spread. Washington has won four of their last five games and Green Bay, conversely, has lost four of five, but the Redskins are only 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favorite.

The Packers, who are 4-5 straight-up and 3-5-1 ATS, have had by far the better of this matchup with a 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine games against Washington. That includes a wild-card playoff win at FedExField last season.

With Drew Brees going against Cam Newton and the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers each being porous against the pass, there is anticipation that the Thursday Night Football betting matchup could be a shootout.

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The Panthers are listed as the 3.5-point favorite against the Saints with a 52.5 total. Carolina is even money to cover with the Saints, who are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against their NFC South counterparts, listed at -120 to cover.

The teams have combined for an average of 64.5 points in their last four meetings.

With Drew Brees going against Cam Newton and the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers each being porous against the pass, there is anticipation that the Thursday Night Football betting matchup could be a shootout.

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The Panthers are listed as the 3.5-point favorite against the Saints with a 52.5 total. Carolina is even money to cover with the Saints, who are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against their NFC South counterparts, listed at -120 to cover.

The teams have combined for an average of 64.5 points in their last four meetings.

We finally have a new number-one! And it’s exactly who you’d expect it to be! After the top two teams in each conference, however, things start to get real murky. By this time of the year we should have a clearer picture of what’s to come in the post season, but parity has been truly ugly this year.

The playoff picture in the AFC is a lot clearer, with basically the AFC West filling up the wild card. That leaves Baltimore and Pittsburgh in a dead heat for the division title and just about everyone else on the outside looking in. I want to say that something will change, but nobody looks like they want to seize this crazy season by the horns.

The NFC is even muddier. Nine teams are separated by one win for the last two wild card spots. Nine! So if you’re just as confused as I am, kick back and let’s try and wade through this together. There’s still five great weeks of betting left, and if things keep projecting out like this, Week 17 might actually be killer.

1. Dallas Cowboys (8-1 SU and ATS)

For the first time since 2002 – the last time they were in the playoffs – the Oakland Raiders meet the Denver Broncos in a second-half game where both AFC West teams have a winning record. Fittingly for a game between teams with the same record, the Sunday Night Football matchup has the host Raiders as slim 1-point favorites with a total of 44.

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The Raiders are 6-2 straight-up and against the spread, largely on the strength of a prolific offense led by third-year QB Derek Carr. It goes without saying that the Broncos defense – with sack-master OLB Von Miller and CB Aqib Talib and CB Chris Harris manning up on Oakland WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper – is the best Oakland has faced.

The Raiders have allowed a league-low nine sacks, but Miller has helped the Broncos amass a league-most 26. For the Raiders to improve on their trend of being 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games, they need to give Carr time to let downfield routes develop.

By now there should be a semblance of reasonable consistency within the league. We can forgive a loss here or there if it’s honorable, but we should have a fix on who the best teams in the NFL are. And we don’t. Which is awesome because this stuff is supposed to surprise us a little bit.

If you’re not leaning hard on teams like Dallas, Atlanta, Denver and New England then you’re simply doing it wrong. All those teams have been incredibly reliable, and the 28 other teams after them have been the opposite. Let’s try to continue to make sense of it all, shall we?

1. New England Patriots (7-1 SU and ATS)

There’s no better way to celebrate a revenge win over your division rival than by trading away your best defensive player.

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons’ NFL-leading offense are up against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which was torched for 513 passing yards in its last outing.

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Atlanta is listed as the four-point favorite against Tampa Bay with a total of 51.5 in the Thursday Night Football betting matchup. The Falcons are the -200 favorite on the moneyline, with the Buccaneers at +170.

While the Falcons lead the NFC South and are 5-3 straight-up and against the spread this season, they still face skepticism. That stems from the Falcons being 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of four or fewer points. Atlanta is also 3-0 SU when Julio Jones has fewer than four receptions, so Ryan will have other outlets if CB Brent Grimes and Tampa Bay’s pass defense takes away his best receiver.

Being favored at home is a bad omen when the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles clash.

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Boosted by rookie-of-the-year favorite Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys are the 4.5-point favorite against the Eagles. The total is 43.5 for their Sunday Night Football betting matchup. The visiting team has won the last six matchups between the NFC East rivals.

The Cowboys come out of their bye week 5-1 straight-up and 5-0-1 against the spread. Dallas is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home after winning their two most recent home games. However, they were an underdog before defeating the Green Bay Packers in Week 6, and are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after winning as an underdog.

Last weekend was a pretty rigorous reminder that the best team doesn’t always win. As much as we like to pretend that we know teams, things change drastically from week to week. Now, Roethlisberger is out, the Packers are in a free fall, Denver has lost two games and Carolina’s only won one. Making sense of how all this shakes out is no easy task. Frankly, the only thing that we know for sure is that New England is undeniably the best team in the league. After that, the waters get really, really muddy.

1. New England Patriots (5-1 SU and ATS)

Bill Belichik has said that he’s done with the Microsoft Surface tablets, which I find absolutely hilarious. It would be perfect if he showed up with an iPad next week and then offered no explanation in the press conference.

Next Game: New England -7.0 at Pittsburgh

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are a banged-up team, which might bring them down to the Chicago Bears’ level. The Packers are listed as the eight-point favorite against the Bears in the Thursday Night Football matchup. The total is set at 46 points. Green Bay is a -370 heavy favorite on the moneyline, with the Bears at +285.

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The Packers are 3-2 straight-up and 1-3-1 against the spread after losing to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. Green Bay, which is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games after a loss, is thin in the running game and in pass coverage. Starting RB Eddie Lacy and backup RB James Starks are out, while top CB Sam Shields has been played on injured reserve and CBs Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are also sidelined.

Rodgers is off to a slow start, but the Packers offensive line is thriving at pass protection and the Bears have not had a consistent pass rush since switching to their 3-4 defense. Rodgers’ main targets, WR Jordy Nelson and WR Randall Cobb, will also face a Bears secondary that could be minus starting CBs Tracy Porter and Bryce Callahan.

I’ve been around the game for long enough to recognize a bizarre season when I see one. And this season might as well be The Upside Down from Stranger Things. Aside from Pittsburgh, Denver and New England being among the best in the AFC, nothing else about the 2016 season makes any goddamn sense and it’s crushing bettors all over the place.

At some point you just have to take information for granted. Stop trying to figure it out and just say “this team is covering despite having tremendous flaws.” Be brave, my wayward friend. You are not alone.

1. New England Patriots (4-1 SU and ATS)

They’re not close to a perfect team, but in a season like this, they’re more than good enough to be the best team in the league by a country mile. The problem? Tom Brady moves the betting line so much that it’s hard for them to be a pure profit generator against the line. This might be the last time they hold the top spot.

The Denver Broncos will try to maintain their mastery of divisional road games without their coach when they visit the San Diego Chargers. The Broncos are listed as the 3.5-point favorite against the host Chargers in the Thursday night matchup. The total is at 45.5 points.

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Denver is 15-0 straight-up, and 14-1 against the spread, over its last 15 road games within the AFC West. Coach Gary Kubiak (migraine condition) will be replaced on the sideline by special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis. Starting QB Trevor Siemian (sprained left shoulder) is listed as questionable, but has been practicing.

The Broncos, who were shredded by the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games after a loss. Denver will need to better support Siemian (or Paxton Lynch) with a strong rushing game. Both RT Donald Stephenson and TE Virgil Green are returning from three-game absences, which should improve Denver’s run blocking.

Aaron Rodgers after a bye week is daunting for any coach, even one who was part of the Green Bay Packers’ meetings and practices for eight seasons.

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The Packers are listed as seven-point favorites for their Sunday Night Football matchup against the New York Giants, whose rookie head coach Ben McAdoo was on Green Bay’s staff for eight seasons. The total is set at 48 points.

Since Rodgers became their quarterback in 2008, the Packers are 6-2 straight-up and 6-1-1 against the spread in games after a bye week. Green Bay is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games in October.

The Minnesota Vikings’ hot start and the New York Giants’ mounting injuries have affected the Monday Night Football betting matchup. The Vikings are listed as 5.5-point favorites against the Giants, after opening as a 3.5-point favorite. The total is set at 43 points.

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Minnesota is 8-2 straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.0 or fewer points. Quarterback Sam Bradford, since being airlifted to replace injured Teddy Bridgewater, has not had an interception through two starts.

Bradford and primary targets such as WR Stefon Diggs, WR Adam Thielen and TE Kyle Rudolph will be facing a makeshirt Giants secondary. Janoris Jenkins is the sole healthy CB, with both Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (groin) and Eli Apple (hamstring) hobbled. The Giants reportedly worked out offensive players at defensive back this week.