Exit before the Grexit

It’s time to get out of European gaming stocks, at least for now.

Something is happening in Greece, a wild card that almost nobody understands. Very rarely in history do these things happen, but political mainstreamers don’t see it coming. They are blinded to it, because they are so neck-deep in the muck of the system itself that they can’t see outside of it.

Here I am not referring to SYRIZA, Greece’s new ruling party, per se (whose leader Alexist Tsipras hates “large gambling interests and profiteering rampages”). SYRIZA is the new radical left wing party that just won 149 seats out of 300 in the Hellenic Parliament to renegotiate the Greek bailout. SYRIZA and Tsipras are just like the others, never saying anything of substance besides a few catchphrases, never being specific, never making any sense. Alexis Tripras is a red herring.

I’m talking about the new Greek Finance Minister, a guy named Yanis Varoufakis. I’ve been following this man for three years now, and I never thought he could actually make it to the Finance Minister’s seat. Unlike the other 299 politicians in the Hellenic Parliament, Yanis Varoufakis speaks like a human being. I think he actually is one.

In a nutshell, it’s like this. If just another politician occupied the Greek FinMin seat, eventually he’d be bought off by the Troika, that trifecta of acronyms like ESM and EFSF that hold all the bailout funds, and the proverbial can would be kicked down the road again. But Varoufakis is not just another politician, and that’s what political mainstreamers, as well as Eurozone leaders themselves, just don’t understand. He’s serious. He wants to default, he’s been saying it for years, and he is the only one with the guts and independence to mean what he says and do it.

Before I get into the seriousness of Varoufakis, the relevant advice is to get out of all European gaming stocks over the next week, maximum two weeks. Sell into upticks and go to cash, not all at once if you have heavy positions, but start zeroing out your holdings. Bwin.party has been trending up over 30% since its bottom in August. Ladbrokes is up 6.5% since the start of the year. William Hill is up close to 5%. Paddy Power is up 30% over the last 6 months. Betfair is in a continuing monster uptrend. Regardless of where you entered, if you’re up or down, all these stocks are in some kind of uptrend, whether short term or longer term. There is about to be at least a countertrend dip in the best case scenario, regardless of fundamentals.

To understand what Varoufakis wants to do, I encourage you to listen to this interview he had back in 2012, before he was ever on the political scene. Also take note of the way he talks. It is not politician-talk. He does not want any more bailouts, he has said he will not accept any more Troika funds, and he actually carries his resignation letter in his inside pocket. In his words, from his blog: