Macau casino revenue falls 39% in March, 10th straight month of decline

Macau casinos recorded their second biggest revenue drop on record in March, the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year revenue declines.

Gaming revenue fell 39.4% to MOP 21.5b (US $2.7b) in March, a decline eclipsed only by February’s 49% fall. Macau’s gaming sector has been in a death spiral ever since Beijing ramped up its anti-corruption measures to stem the flow of public officials blowing public money at Macau’s VIP gaming rooms. For the year-to-date, Macau gaming revenue is down 36.6% from the same period last year.

Gaming analysts are now frantically reassessing their full year 2015 revenue projections. A median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg puts the expected annual decline at 21%, over twice the figure forecast just two months ago, and significantly greater than the 2.6% annual decline recorded in 2014.

As ever, the thinning herd of VIP gamblers drove most of the most recent month’s decline. On Monday, CIMB Securities issued a note saying it believed VIP revenue was down 51% in March compared to a 19% decline for the mass market sector. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau will release official VIP/mass figures for Q1 later this month.