MGM stock has not had a great start to the year. Neither has the rest of the US market of course. MGM is down 17.5% year to date with the S&P down 5%. A look at the headlines for MGM could give the impression, which I believe false, that MGM is declining for fundamental reasons. Earnings were far off the mark, with a loss of 1 cent per share compared with consensus estimates of a gain of 7 cents. Sounds bad, sure, but the loss can be blamed, once again, on Macau.

While MGM does not have a huge presence there compared to its competitors, it still lost a lot of money on its Cotai property, and it was MGM China’s losses that accounted for both the earnings and revenue misses. MGM China revenue on the whole declined 31% year over year. There is now a big hole in MGM’s balance sheet due to a goodwill impairment that will take years to rebuild. But other than that, things look good for Las Vegas’s largest single employer.

Net revenue at MGM’s domestic resorts is up 2%. EBITDA, which gives a much clearer idea of pure business going on there, is up 15% year over year. EBITDA margin is up 27.3%, an impressive 330 basis points from the year ago quarter. CityCenter earned an all time record EBITDA, 36% up year over year. Gaming volume is slightly down, but hotel occupancy was at 89% for 2015, up from 88% in 2014 despite a higher average daily rate. That means Las Vegas guests are packing in even at higher rates, willing and able to spend more. The credit supply is still growing nicely. In short, there is nothing to indicate, as per the MGM Economic Indicator, that the US economy is in any immediate danger right now – not to say that it won’t be in a few months, just that right now it looks fine.

So why is MGM down so sharply so far this year? Well, along with the rest of the market, MGM seems to be suffering from the side effects of the oil downturn. I had said this over a month ago as speculation, but now it’s getting some traction from the more official people with bigger names and more impressive sounding acronyms and credentials than me, like the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, the SWFI. Both Bloomberg and CNN are picking up on it now, as both are quoting the SWFI as saying that over $400 billion may be withdrawn from global stock markets this year by governments if crude stays below $40. They also said that 2015 saw liquidations of $213 billion, meaning this year’s selling could double last year’s.