Macau casinos could be headed for their second worst month in five years if current trends continue.

Macau casinos have been mired in a 14-month long gaming revenue slump, but the rate of year-on-year decline has slowed in recent months, leading some operators to cautiously voice the opinion that some kind of ‘bottom’ had been reached.

Think again. Unofficial reports from Macau casinos over the first half of August have analysts reducing their estimates for the month’s revenue potential. Sterne Agee analysts had been expecting a year-on-year decline of between 30% and 34%, slightly better than July’s 34.5% decline. But they believe gross gaming revenue fell 39% in the first two weeks of August, forcing them to reduce the month’s estimate to a decline of between 33% and 37%.

Wells Fargo also cut its estimates to between 36% and 38%, while Sanford Bernstein Research split the difference, calling for a 37% monthly decline. Collectively, projections are for Macau to record revenue of between MOP 17.5b and 18.4b (US $2.2b – $2.3b). That’s only a whisker above the MOP 17.4b Macau reported in June, which marked the lowest gaming revenue tally since November 2010.