Fitch Ratings analysts believe Japan has a “50/50 chance” of passing their long-delayed casino legislation this year.

Japanese lawmakers reintroduced their casino study bill in April, but little has been heard of the issue since. Last week, Fitch suggested the bill had a coin-flip’s chance of coming up for a vote in Japan’s parliament this year. Assuming a positive vote is forthcoming, the next step would be passage of a second bill that would spell out the actual nuts and bolts of casino regulation and licensing.

Similar sentiments were expressed by Greenberg Traurig attorney Ryo Takizawa, who told GGRAsia it was “expected” that the study bill would meet with approval in the Diet this year. Assuming the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can get its coalition partner Komeito to drop its moral objections to casino gambling, Takizawa said that the legislative process “will move forward relatively smoothly.”

Takizawa suggested the study bill’s follow-up legislation could be split into smaller, more manageable chunks, such as one bill “to regulate the criteria for choosing bids, granting licenses; another to implement an oversight body.” Another bill could deal with preventing and addressing “social problems.”