Macau casinos are facing a bleak lunar new year celebration, with analysts projecting February’s revenue could fall as much as 40% year-on-year. The comparison was always going to be difficult, given February 2014’s record MOP 38b (US $4.75b) haul, but the new year of the sheep appears to be entering this world already shorn.

Annual comparisons are doubly tricky given the lunar new year’s habit of spanning the January-February period, so most analysts opt to lump the two months together. UBS analysts believe the combined January-February period will fall between 27% and 32% this year.

Daiwa Securities analysts suggest the already troubled VIP sector could witness a 50% year-on-year decline in February. Worse, mass market gamblers are finding it increasingly difficult to get to Macau thanks to further transit visa restrictions that kicked in last month. Daiwa reported that eligible travelers were facing up to three-hour waits at Macau’s border gates, only to be denied entry.

Daiwa also reported that Macau casinos had yet to put their dealers on standby notice for mandatory overtime and some large junket operators have reduced their forward hotel bookings by 50%. Bottom line, Daiwa says this lunar new year “will be marked by poor liquidity, a decline in player quality and a drop in frequent customers.” So, er, happy new year?

Wells Fargo analysts believe Macau’s struggles are firmly in line with the aims of China’s President Xi Jinping, who reportedly doesn’t intend to let Macau overheat as it did in 2013, when it posted annual growth of 18.6%. China’s economy is expected to grow by an annual 6% to 7% over the next few years and Macau will apparently only be allowed growth of a few points beyond that range.

Wells Fargo qualified its predictions by saying that, in Macau, “nothing is static and transparency is low.” But the bank has already struck a far more pessimistic tone for 2015’s prospects, projecting negative growth of 12%. Wells Fargo noted that there were more optimistic forecasts out there, but “few point to hard evidence as to why growth will resume.”

VENETIAN MACAO CANCELS BECKHAM BASH

Phil Ivey’s online poker training site is up for sale barely a year after it launched with the promise of delivering high quality content from a highly skilled roster of sponsored pros.

The Ivey League online poker-training site is up for sale.

If you have $20m handy, then head over to Merger Network and make your bid. Unfortunately, the business summary seems to be written in Swahili. You have been warned.

In the summer of 2013, the poker community started to get a little wet after Phil Ivey launched a free play social media poker offering on Facebook called IveyPoker. In Sep 2013, the app went mobile.

The rumors started to circulate that Ivey had taken his first step towards owning a real money online poker network. The States would be his first point of call, and then the world. Global domination, nothing less would do.

Patrick Antonius, Greg Merson, Jennifer Harman and Dan Smith were some of the biggest names to wear the Ivey Poker patch. Then there was Ivey himself. The opportunity to play with the greatest poker player in the world was too much to bear. Active users started to pile through the gates.

Merson would later leave the stable and join WSOP.com, but many more arrived. At one point it seemed likely that IveyPoker would overtake Full Tilt’s world record for having the most sponsored pros on their books. Only none of them were getting paid.

World Series of Poker Main Event champion, Martin Jacobson, has donated $250,000 to Raising for Effective Giving after his big $10m win back in November. 

Martin Jacobson is poker’s world champion.

He is our figurehead.

The integrity and values of our world champion are paramount (just ask Joe Hachem), and the young London-based Swede has started off in fine fettle after donating $250,000 to the non-profit organization Raising for Effective Giving (REG).

REG was founded by, amongst others, Philipp Gruissem, Igor Kurganov and Liv Boeree as a way to create a charitable movement of poker players who could make a difference in the world by the use of scientific and rational decision making in order to find the most effective interventions.

Viewers of the 2014 WSOP Main Event final table will have no doubt noticed the REG patch glued to the rather impressive left bicep of the blonde bombshell, and it’s nice to see him come through after the biggest win of his life.

According to REG’s Facebook page Jacobson has a 5% REG commitment, meaning he donates 5% of all gross winnings to cost effective charities. Jorryt van Hoof was also wearing a REG patch in the same final table, but details of his donations have so far not been made public.

Online gambling operator 888 Holdings has received a takeover bid from UK-listed bookmaker William Hill. On Tuesday, 888 confirmed a report in The Times that Hills had offered 210p per share, a deal valuing 888 at over £744m (15x annual EBITDA). Shares in 888 jumped more than 25% on the news before closing up over 18% at 171.5p. Hills’ shares fell 3% to 377.4p.

Following initial reports, 888 issued a statement saying it had “received an approach regarding a possible offer,” but added that there was no guarantee that “any firm offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any firm offer might be forthcoming.” The company promised to update the market within 28 days.

This isn’t the first time 888 has been the subject of acquisition talk and this deal may also amount to nothing in the end. The Times claimed that the Shaked family, who played a key role in 888’s origin story and holds nearly half of 888’s shares, is insisting on a 300p per share offer or no dice.

Hills has yet to issue any statement regarding the deal but Panmure Gordon analyst Karl Burns suggested Hills was unlikely to up its offer. Burns suggested meeting the alleged Shaked price target would “stretch [Hills’] balance sheet to a degree that they may have to raise capital as well.”

On the surface, the deal would appear a good fit for Hills. 888 is one of the few listed operators whose poker vertical has weathered the global decline in poker revenue. 888 also has a foothold in America’s regulated online gambling markets, with operations already active in New Jersey and a Nevada launch expected sometime this year. Hills has a solid presence in Nevada sports betting and has a tentative betting deal with New Jersey’s Monmouth Park.

Hills’ play for 888 reflects the squeeze facing all UK-facing online gambling operators, which are struggling to absorb the impact of the new 15% point of consumption tas. Retail operators like Hills will also face a hike in Machine Games Duty on their fixed-odds betting terminals come March 1.

Where Tuesday’s news leaves UK-listed operator Bwin.party is anyone’s guess. Speculation continues to swirl that Bwin.party is a takeover target but so far it’s been all smoke and no fire. Poker writer Dave Behr (@dave_behr) underscored this sentiment with this Tuesday tweet: “I picture bwin, sitting on stage, checking their phones, waiting for their number to be called, as all other chairs empty out.”

When it comes to the capital goods sector of the gambling industry – the gaming machine manufacturers – there are no clear winners. There are safer companies and more dangerous ones, but none in any sort of exceptional position. One thing that stands out about the capital goods sector of gaming is that, while most retailers – the big direct-to-consumer casinos themselves – have recovered spectacularly since the financial crisis, the machine manufacturers have not. At least not in terms of share price. International Game Technology (IGT) gets singled out sometimes for lagging in capital growth compared to direct-to-consumer casino companies, but that’s apples to oranges comparing two different strata of the gambling industry.

Scientific Games (SGMS), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), and IGT are all way below their 2007 highs. The only game manufacturer that ended up surpassing its 2007 highs was Bally Technologies, which got acquired by Scientific.

Let’s take a look at three of them.

Aristocrat Leisure in Australia

Aristocrat is in something of a weird situation. First, taking a look at the macro conditions and monetary picture in Australia, we see this.

money supply growth has been stable for a decade. You can almost draw a straight diagonal line from 2002 until now, so nothing too crazy there. However, take a look at the Aussie Dollar / US Dollar exchange rate and there’s definitely something strange going on in the Outback.

The AUD has weakened 20% in 6 months against the USD. This can’t be because of supply, since while the AUD supply certainly is not stable (it keeps growing at a close to constant rate), it is a lot more stable than the supply of other currencies. This has to do with USD demand, which has skyrocketed in tandem with collapsing oil prices, the USD being for all intents and purposes an oil-backed currency, since oil can only be traded in US Dollars. The conclusion being that the current fall in the Aussie Dollar since September is artificial and entirely related to oil. See for yourself below, comparing the oil price with the AUD/USD ratio.

Gaimerz.com Co-Founder Martyn Denney on Video Game Wagering Video

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Suncity Group owner and Chairman Alvin Chau Cheok Wa said that the closures of some VIP rooms in Macau was to be “expected” but the mass market could not replace the VIP sector.

Regardless of the VIP business slump, Mr. Chau said that the sector is still important for the whole industry, as revenues generated by the sector account for as much as 70% of total gaming revenue.

“If there are no VIP rooms, [despite] the proportion of the mass market getting bigger, the drop in gaming revenue will remain serious,” Chau said in an interview with local Chinese media outlet Macau Asia Satellite Television.

Chau also predicts that the VIP sectors will see a revenue drop by 15% more following the implementation of a full smoking ban. “Even Singapore, with its strict government, let gaming operators build indoor smoking rooms inside the casino when it opened the gaming market, [so that there are] smoking areas and non-smoking areas,” Chau said.

Macau’s Health Bureau’s Tobacco Prevention and Control Office Director Tang Chi Ho said that the full ban on smoking in all indoor workplaces in Macau—including VIP rooms and airport-style smoking pods on mass gaming floors— is likely by 2016.

Tang said he was “confident” a tobacco ban covering all workplaces in all Macau casinos would gain acceptance among the public and be approved by Macau’s Legislative Assembly members. Alexis Tam Chon Weng, Macau’s Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture, on January 29 said the government would strive to have an amended bill ready before the end of the first half of 2015.

Meanwhile, local gaming union Macau Gaming Enterprises Staff Association submitted a petition of about 20,000 signatures to the government headquarters on Friday, urging the government to legislate on smoke-free casinos within this year. Choi Kam Fu, director-general of the association told the reporters that the limits of fines punishing a casino for not posting smoking ban signs is too low and not an effective punishment, suggesting the government  to include records of violations of the smoking ban as one of the factors in the renewal of gaming licenses.

Share prices of casino companies in the Philippines took a tumble, the biggest one-day loss in the last year, over fears that China’s increased focus on cracking down on foreign casinos could have a debilitating effect in the Philippine casino industry.

According to BusinessWorld, share prices dropped across the board with Bloomberry Resorts Corp. seeing the biggest drop at 11.64% before closing at a price of Php10.32 per share, the biggest shares drop the company has experienced in over three years. Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corp. wasn’t far behind with its share price going down 10.19% to Php9.70 per share. Meanwhile, Premium Leisure Corp. the local arm of Melco Crown Resorts and the SM Group, saw its share price stumble by 8.24% to Php1.56 per share, while Travellers International Hotel Group Inc., which operates Resorts World Manila, saw its share price go down by 4.23% to Php6.80 per share.

Despite the looming threat of China’s iron hand having a negative affect on the casino industry in the Philippines, there are still those who believe that the country won’t be as affected by this crackdown as many have feared. Tiger Resorts, Leisure & Entertainment Inc. Executive Vice-President of Casino Operations and Marketing Matt Hurst told BusinessWorld that “legitimate tourism and travel” to the Philippines from China won’t be affected by this crackdown and the healthy influx of Chinese tourists could still feed into the growth of the Philippine casino industry. Incidentally, Tiger Resorts, the local arm of Kazuo Okada’s Universal Entertainment Corp. that is building Manila Bay Resorts is unlisted in the Philippine Stock Exchange.

Hurst also noted that the gaming market in the country is well-equipped to accommodate visitors from other countries and not just from China.

The Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) took a similar stance on the issue, noting that Chinese gamblers aren’t the “be-all-end-all” clients they’ve been made out to be. While they do represent a vast and rich market, the Philippine casino industry can still tap into “several sources” of tourists who come to the Philippines, including those coming from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and other Southeast Asian countries.

Some analysts, including COL Financial Vice President April Lynn Tan, believes that while the crackdown might have a short-term effect in bringing high-rollers to the Philippines, China’s mass market could make up for that through the volume of visitations in the country. Either way, Tan also said that the stumble in share prices of casino operators is a “knee-jerk” reaction” from shareholders who aren’t willing to wait out this dip because of fears that Macau’s sinking casino revenue could be a sign of things to come in the Philippines.

At some point, Summit Securities President Harry Liu believes that casino operators will “likely reach an agreement” with the Chinese government on how to resolve the issue that will satisfy all parties concerned. “The owners of big casinos can’t just sit down and do nothing. Casino has been here for a long time, you can’t imagine that it will just close down,” Liu told BW.

The UK Gambling Commission has published a series of updates on the version of its License Conditions and Codes of Practice (LCCP) for licensed operators, which will take effect May 8.

The changes to the LCCP is a response to the LCCP social responsibility review that took place last year, increasing the number of measures with which companies must comply under the terms of their license agreement.

Here are the main points of the new regulatory enhancements, much of which will go into effect in May:

Operators’ employees must be able to supervise customers effectively on gambling premises. And they must have arrangements for identifying customers who are at risk of gambling-related harm, if they are not displaying obvious signs.

Larger operators must conduct test purchasing to make sure that their systems for preventing underage gambling are working.

By April 2016, land-based operators must have in place schemes that allow a customer to make a single request to self-exclude from all operators of a similar type within their area – typically where they live and work. The Commission is also working with industry representatives to develop a national online self-exclusion scheme, which should be in place in 2017.

A range of measures to ensure that marketing and advertising is socially responsible, including a requirement that the marketing of ‘free bet’ offers is open, transparent and not misleading.

Valve Corporation, the developer of first-person shooter video game Counter-Strike, has issued a strong warning to any professional player that match fixing, or gambling of any kind while playing the video game should be put to a stop.

“Professional players, teams, and anyone involved in the production of CS:GO events, should under no circumstances gamble on CS:GO matches, associate with high volume CS:GO gamblers, or deliver information to others that might influence their CS:GO bets,” the company said in a statement.

As such, Valve has imposed a new set of rules that forbids professional players from placing bets on matches, even those that they’re not directly partaking in. The new rule will now be imposed on all tournaments sponsored by the company.

While it’s hard to actually police betting on Counter-Strike: Global Offensive matches, the company is pleading to its players to follow the new rule to “protect the integrity of these matches” because match fixing episodes could have a substantial impact on the heat and stability of the sport.”

“Betting using inside information, or even the perception or suspicion thereof, carries a significant risk of damaging your personal brand, your team, your community, and may lead to exclusion from future Valve-sponsored events,” the company added.

The announcement came after a recent of high-profile betting controversies, including match fixing claims, came to light. Valve even took the unprecedented step of banning some players for participating in throwing away games for the sake of winning bets.

This includes 19 players from Epsilon eSports, ex-ESC Gaming and WinneR, all of whom were banned from participating in an upcoming tournament in Poland after evidence of match fixing came to light. Five players from ex-ESC Gaming ultimately saw their bans overturned, but 14 players from the other two teams remained.

Pala Interactive CEO Jim Ryan, who was also the CEO of PartyGaming and co-CEO of bwin.party, has expressed his concerns over the likelihood of the Restoration of America’s Wire Act (RAWA) becoming law.

Last week saw Rep. Jason Chaffetz reintroduce RAWA, the anti-online gambling legislation supported by Las Vegas Sands Chairman Sheldon Adelson. The three-page bill would create a federal ban on almost all online gambling, seeking to undo the late-2011 Department of Justice opinion that the 1961 Wire Act only applies to sports betting.

RAWA would force Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware—the only states where online gambling is regulated—to close their intrastate online gambling markets and would also restrict state lotteries from offering online services.

“It’s a most interesting time in that we have a Republican-controlled Congress and a well-financed political effort to amend the Wire Act. This is the most significant threat we’ve had post-Black Friday,” Ryan told PocketFives.”I think Adelson’s legislation has a good shot of passing.”

Ryan also said that if Adelson’s group was successful in amending the Wire Act, it would push online gambling into the black market instead of regulating it.

Regulated igaming in California: “…Low Odds of Bill Passing in 2015.”

With the Washington and Mississippi online poker bills now dead, any hopes of another state joining the country’s three regulated markets in 2015 now rest pretty much with California. However, with the Golden State’s gambling interests continuing to find little common ground, the chances of California’s AB 9 and AB 167 bills progressing in 2015 remains a long shot.

In what has been one of the most enduring relationships in the online gaming world Winmedia are sad to report their relationship with leading Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has come to an end.

What began in January 2002 with the filming of the world’s first commercially sponsored poker tournament – made into a seven part TV series broadcast on SKY Sports – developed into a 13 year affiliation which reached dizzy heights.

Ian Langstaff, director of Winmedia which has specialised in the filming and broadcast of poker for over a decade, explained:  “Paddy Power unquestionably helped put our company on the map with their boldness of vision to sponsor a televised poker tournament long before online poker was on most people’s radar.  True to the company’s legendary sense of humour that event was actually filmed at the Divine School of Worship Studio, Maynooth, Ireland!

“In the subsequent years we have enjoyed some great times broadcasting and webcasting both the Paddy Power Irish Open and Winter Festivals.  The highlight was probably the 2006 Irish Open when we broadcast the final table of the tournament live on both SKY Sports and national broadcaster RTE.  In 2007-2009 we recorded the day’s action, edited it during the early evening, and broadcasted it as part of a live presentation from the venue that night.   I believe this is the only way to broadcast poker on television.

“Whilst in later years our joint activities have amounted to simply webcasting a single feature table, it is still with a heavy heart that our relationship has come to an end.  We take away some great memories which include working with Liam ‘The Gentleman’ Flood, Doyle Brunson, Kara Scott – amongst other great presenters – and some very deserved winners.”

Winmedia maintain its logistic and streaming contact with the World Poker Tour.  It is also developing the World Series of Baccarat, the opening rounds of which were recently filmed in Macau – the footage is now in post-production.

Controversial celebrity steals reality show spotlight while EastEnders smashes The X Factor in markets as the search for exclusive regional betting partner begins.

Last September amid her 2014-winning streak, FlashBitch accurately predicted the winners of Big Brother, Celebrity Big Brother and The X Factor, scoring her first hat trick.

FlashBitch tipped Katie Hopkins as winner but latecomer Katie Price, survived the final eviction despite the bookies comments on this being a two horse race. Coral’s Nicola McGeady noted: “Calum Best’s odds were slashed over the days preceding the final eviction… it’s a two horse race between Calum Best and Katie Hopkins.”

Despite failing to score her second hat-trick to re-establish the position of UK’s leading celebrity tipster, sources close to the mystery TV tipster confirmed today that FlashBitch is delighted with her score-card.

Eastenders Smashes Novelty-Betting Box Office

The mystery ‘whodunit’ storyline “Who Killed Lucy Beale?” has smashed UK novelty betting records, overtaking even the most established markets including The X Factor and Big Brother.

“EastEnders is about to reach its conclusion and we’re expecting BBC TV to crank up the hype machine as we move into the last two weeks before the killer’s identity is revealed. BBC EastEnders’ Facebook page has 3,565,831 likes, it’s a part of the UK’s psyche, most of the nation are sat on the edge of their seats.” – Paul Reilly – Media Skunk Works

Coingaming.io, the leading platform provider which specialises in the provisioning of Bitcoin cryptocurrency solutions for the iGaming sector, today announced that it is the first ever licensed Bitcoin only gaming platform to offer Microgaming Quickfire games.

Integration with Quickfire, powered by Microgaming, provides operators that use the Coingaming Bitcoin only casino platform with access to over 400 games, which include games like Avalon II, Thunderstruck II, and branded content titles such as, The Dark Knight™, The Dark Knight Rises™ and Playboy™.

Mark McGuinness, Communications Director of Coingaming, explains: “Microgaming are leaders in providing first-class software and their comprehensive and innovative portfolio of casino games is available in over 20 languages. Coingaming is focused on providing the best gaming experience to the rapidly growing Bitcoin casino player community. Our agreement with Quickfire, powered by Microgaming, shall see Bitcasino.io our biggest B2B partner going live first, shortly followed be our full network of online operators allowing player’s access to the finest and most exhilarating games possible. ”

Neill Whyte, Head of Product Channels, at Microgaming comments: “Coingaming is well-respected when it comes to Bitcoin gaming platforms and white label services. We are delighted that they have chosen Quickfire, powered by Microgaming, to amplify their casino games offering. By joining the Quickfire platform, they are demonstrating their passion to providing their customers with the highest level of gaming entertainment.”

For further information, please contact:

Coingaming.io

Dan Bilzerian will not be spending time behind bars, for blowing up a tractor in a Nevada desert, after the judge allowed him to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of failing to put out the fire Bilzerian’s home made bomb created.

Dan Bilzerian – the self proclaimed most successful poker player of 2014 – has just proven that although money can’t buy you happiness, it does come in handy when you want to avoid a 12-year prison sentence.

You may remember that Bilzerian, and his buddy Jeremy Guymon, were arrested at Los Angeles International Airport, on 11 Dec 2014, after the fuzz used every ounce of their Sherlock Holmes detection prowess to link the pair with the explosion of a tractor in a stretch of Nevada desert.

Bilzerian had boasted about it through his social media channels; not exactly a smart move when a million airheads follow his every move.

The pair were said to have bought an old tractor, rigged it with explosives, and then blew it up by shooting the detonation device with a high-powered rifle. Nearby hikers had to duck as pieces of the tractor flew into the air. The incident happened on 4 Nov 2014.

Friday was judgment day for Bilzerian and Guymon, but they were so confident they didn’t even turn up to face the Nevadan beak. Instead it was left to Bilzerian’s lawyer, David Chesnoff, to tell the judge that his clients would plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of negligently failing to extinguish a fire in the open, and also make a public service announcement, on behalf of the Bureau of Land Management, urging people not to buy tractors, rig them with explosives, and then shoot the detonator with a high powered rifle, when not on your land.

I guess doing it in your own backyard is fine then.

The Brazilian Series of Poker has inked a deal with the Global Poker Index that will see their ranking system used to determine the Season 2015 Player of the Year.

When 2,446 players entered the 2013 Brazilian Series of Poker (BSOP) Millions in Sao Paolo, an understanding was reached. Poker is huge in Brazil. Although that number has not been breached since, Ronaldo’s dazzling run at the 2015 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure (PCA) Main Event, would have added to the clamor to be a true Brazilian poker star.

The BSOP is one of the most exciting tours in Latin America, and this week, they have strengthened their brand by agreeing a deal to use the unique ranking formula of the Global Poker Index (GPI), to help identify the winner of the 2015 BSOP Player of the Year.

The GPI has an estimated 370,000 players on its books, and analyses results from over 300,000 tournaments worldwide. In 2014, Rodrigo Garrido Portaleoni won the BSOP Player of the Year award after cashing an incredible 15-times.

GPI CEO Alex Dreyfus is delighted with the news:

“I am very happy to put the mark of GPI in Brazil, the most active poker market at the moment. Poker in Brazil is booming thanks to BSOP’s efforts and its partners. We share the vision of ‘esportificar’ poker (#SportifyPoker), which has been the BSOP precursor and, I believe the GPI can definitely support this vision. ”

BSOP Tournament Director Devanir Campos shares that enthusiasm:

Phil Hellmuth will be joined by the likes of Chris Harrison, Kim Coates and Dean Norris as he hosts a pre-Oscars charity poker tournament to aid the One Heart Source and Wounded Warriors foundations.

Poker has had its moments under the spotlight. Beads of sweat have fallen. The red carpet stained with hard work. But it never outstays its welcome. It’s a flitter. In, out, shaking it all about. But when it’s there, it looks mighty fine. Not a hair out of place.

The problem with poker is it can’t keep still. It doesn’t like the heat. Headlines are for some other hog. This baby prefers life in the shadows. It retreats into the murky mist. It never really gets a good run. If it were a show, it would be cut after the first season.

Kim Coates and Dean Norris know a thing or two about staying IN the limelight. Coates entered the fucked up mind of Tig Trager and played it to perfection. Sons of Anarchy lost more members than the Harlem branch of the Ku Klux Klan; Coates made it through all seven seasons.

“I’m gonna dunk my balls in your mouth. You’re gonna gag, I’m gonna laugh. We’ll be best friends forever.” Tig Trager.

If Sons of Anarchy was the Rolling Stones of TV shows, then Breaking Bad has to be The Beatles. Many people believe it’s the best TV series ever to air, and the role of Hank Schrader was one of the reasons why. Dean Norris was amazing. Unfortunately, he didn’t have Tig Trager’s longevity. He dies. Sorry for the spoiler, but if you haven’t seen Breaking Bad you deserve it.

“My name is ASAC Hank Schrader and you can go fuck yourself.” Hank Schrader.