The best chance for Osaka to have an integrated resort (IR) open in 2025 is if an operator were willing to risk hundreds of millions on blind faith. That’s a potentially disappointing takeaway from Global Market Advisors (GMA) June 4 update on the Japan IR timeline.

Previously, even if Osaka had selected its IR partner and pushed to build the resort as quick as possible, getting one constructed by 2025, the year Osaka is set to host the World’s Fair, would have been improbable. Now it looks to be basically impossible thanks to an expected election for both the Upper and Lower houses of the Diet, Japan’s parliament.

That election, GMA writes, would only delay the selection of IR license winners by a few months, but that’s just enough to push a grand opening into 2026.

The math just doesn’t work for Osaka to have a resort built in time. They explain: