Buttigieg surges in odds as Trump faces impeachment, not conviction

It’s been a huge week for U.S. politics, and the odds are on the move. The House impeachment hearings have wrapped up their second full week of investigation, with all of the big witnesses to President Donald Trump’s alleged crimes having spoken. The Democratic presidential hopefuls have also had their fifth debate, and there looks to be some changes in the rankings.

When we last checked in on Trump’s odds of being impeached, early witnesses had fallen a bit flat, and Predictit had him at $0.74 to be impeached. Since then, absolutely damaging testimony from Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, Gordon Sondland and Dr. Fiona Hill, each of them confirming a Quid Pro Quo and labeling the scheme as inappropriate, have pumped that price to a new all-time high at $0.80. If you’re going to bet on Trump to be impeached, it’s pretty good odds you’ll win, so get in now before it’s all but certain.

But will he be forced out of office? Unless a sudden new witness comes forward, the answer seems a solid no. With the expected witnesses having been exhausted, Trump now sees a price of $0.79 to complete his first term. That’s the highest it’s been since September 24, when Nancy Pelosi first announced the impeachment inquiry.

So it looks like Trump will be campaigning for his 2020 re-election campaign. But who will he face? The fifth democratic debate was held on November 20, and there was plenty of movement since the last time we looked at the candidates.