Macau casinos may be in for a longer revenue slump than originally anticipated, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.

DB’s Karen Tang issued a note this week warning that the mass market gambling sector is proving ineffective at mitigating Macau’s serious decline in VIP gambling. Tang notes that Macau visitor arrivals fell 4% year-on-year in the first three months of 2015, a decline not seen since China imposed visa restrictions in 2008-09. The decline was even higher (10%) in the number of overnight visitors.

In addition, visitors are spending less at Macau’s gaming tables. Mass gaming spend per visitor fell 14% in Q1, despite average table limits falling 30% from their Q3 2014 peak. Tang says this decline is in part due to an increased number of premium mass gamblers – who wager significant amounts of cash but not enough to qualify as VIPs – looking beyond Macau to get their casino jollies.

Macau’s mass market yield per table fell 22% in Q1 and Tang believes this “will fall another 30% by 2017” as the new wave of Cotai casinos opens, significantly increasing supply without a corresponding increase in demand. DB has therefore revised its forecast of a 26% decline in FY 2015 revenue to 28.5%, with the VIP market projected to fall 33.6% to $17.6b and the mass market down 20.8% to $13.8b.