By nature, gamblers hate mistakes they can’t see coming. It’s like betting last-minute that AJ McCarron is going to fumble the snap on Monday Night Football or getting screwed by a random injury. It’s impossible to work these types of x-factors in to whatever calculations or assumptions you design to create the most risk adverse, investment situation for your money.

It’s probably an oxymoron to call gamblers “risk averse”, but it’s not like the sharps and veterans of the industry go out there burning cash like it’s a stack of old porn their mother just found under the bed. We all try to find different angles, corners and metrics to improve our leverages. At least, that’s what we should be doing.

I’m a fan of advanced metrics as a nerd who loves football and probably has too much spare time on my hands. But I also prefer fiddling with classic stats to try and find inside anomalies because – honestly – I’m not as smart as the guys who design the advanced metrics in the first place.

There’s a lot of different, self-made stat configurations I could dig up, but most of it’s boring and don’t necessarily lead anywhere. Most of it reaffirms stuff I already know or assume, which is what most of us want to hear when we’re buying points or laying them. More than anything, I’m just trying to find a wrinkle in the matrix. An anomaly. Something that doesn’t make sense that can help me arrive at a destination that’s closer to a definitive conclusion.