Gaming markets are looking good across continents these days, but despite the good, and in some cases even euphoric numbers, cautious optimism is the play here. Chasing price is not a good idea right now. Strategy now calls for taking profits on double digit gains with a wait-and-see attitude. The reasons for this are different for each region, United States, Europe, and Macau. Let’s go through them.

United States

The old adage “Sell in May and go away” makes a lot of sense, and I believe there is one main reason for it. The annual dollar supply drop almost always takes place in the last week of April, and I have previously speculated that this may have something to do with Tax Day, which sucks money out of banks and puts it into the US Treasury. The exact reason doesn’t really matter so long as it is predictable. The next Fed Money Stock Measures report is due on Thursday, and it will be a crucial one for the entire US stock market as we head into the summer months.

Not to wade too deeply into mathematical details here, the dollar supply stands at $13.628 trilliion as of the Fed’s last report. While it is uncertain how reliable the numbers from USdebtclock.org are (they claim to be real time sourced from the Fed but I can’t verify that), M2 is now $13.534 trillion according to the clock, which would be a drop of 0.7% from last week. If USdebtclock is accurate here, this would very bullish going into the summer. It would take a drop of at least 2% to cause any significant trouble for stocks.