Melco Resorts & Entertainment, which as of yesterday, May 15, is no longer jointly owned by Crown, used to pride itself as being the mass market Macau casino. Focus on the mass market was its marketing point, that it could survive the onslaught against the junkets by turning to ordinary gamblers. From the looks of its most recent quarter, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Not that mass market is failing at Melco, but the VIPs seem to be flocking there over other places.

I do love me a good conspiracy theory as long as it is basically plausible (plausible being the subjective term that it is notwithstanding) but the VIPs heading to Melco makes you think, does it have anything to do with last year’s arrest of Crown Resorts executives in Macau and the recent split between Melco and Crown? Now that the Australian foreigners have been purged so to speak, is Beijing giving Melco an easier time in trying to attract the whales? A little bit of under-the-table discreet Chinese protectionism without the formal legislation?

I have no direct evidence of this, but the numbers speak for themselves. At City of Dreams Macau, rolling chip volume, AKA VIP turnover, increased by 29%, or $2.8B. At City of Dreams Manila, VIP was up a huge 60%, $900M absolutely. Studio City saw VIP turnover of $3.6B in the first quarter of VIP operation there. The only Melco casino with a falling VIP segment was Altira Macau, where VIP fell by $500M, or 11% compared to Q1 2016. All in all, it’s a gain of $6.8B in VIP turnover.

Mass market fell at City of Dreams Macau and Altira Macau, but rose at Studio City and City of Dreams Manila. Overall mass market turnover increased by just under $100M, a nice number to report to shareholders about how dedicated you are to mass market but really nothing compared to VIP.