Super Bowl LI is going to tell us a lot we need to know about the economy for the first half of the year. The amount of bets placed each year is a good proxy for how much excess liquidity is floating around, and this year we’re looking at an 11% increase in total betting volume over Super Bowl 50. So clearly we don’t have to worry about the next recession until Donald Trump launches a war. Maybe it’ll be on Australia after his big fight with the Aussie Prime Minister over a refugee deal. Or Mexico. Or China. Or Germany? There are so many options now that being diplomatic is no longer a thing it seems. While scary, you have to admit there is something refreshingly entertaining about politicians the world over getting yelled at by a loud-mouthed reality TV star who used to hock his own brand of now defunct steaks out of the now defunct Sharper Image gadget store chain.

And now he’s president. What a weird time to be alive, eh?

The 11% increase number comes from the American Gaming Association, those group of guys hired to squeeze favors out of Congress and get the government off the gambling industry’s back as much as possible. The absolute estimate for betting volume is $4.7 billion, which includes both legal and illegal venues. Not sure how the AGA is able to track under the table bets, but it’s probably just a mathematical model thrown together based off the increase in Vegas sportsbook volumes. It makes the AGA look better if they seem like wizards able to divine every bet placed on the Super Bowl.

If the 11% increase figure is accurate, it would make some sense, because the money supply has increased by about 8% since Super Bowl 50. The slight overshoot could indicate that everyone hates Tom Brady and the Patriots so bets are lining up against them out of spite, and therefore betting volumes are up more than the money supply. Or it could mean that people are just getting looser with their cash because they are more confident in their paychecks, which precedes price inflation. Or it could be a combination of both. Either way, the fact that betting volumes are expected to jump by a double digit percentage is especially telling about the speed of the current US economy considering the ratings struggle that the NFL has encountered this year, and the relatively boring playoffs this season to boot.