The dollar index is in dangerous territory and bitcoin may be sniffing it out. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for the index is oversold for the first time in at least 5 years. The 50 day moving average is starting to slope downward for the first time since the 2014 oil crash. The only good news for dollar bulls is that it just bounced off the 200 day moving average, just half a point above three-year support levels at 91.88.

The dollar is flirting with its last major support level post the late 2014/early 2015 advance. If and when that level breaks, the next support level is around 86, and after that 80.

Meanwhile, the dreaded bitcoin fork was much ado about nothing. The dollar price of bitcoin didn’t flinch throughout the whole ordeal. When it was clear the system wouldn’t implode, price spiked again to $3,400, a more than 25% rise pre fork. Now imagine what would happen to the dollar price of bitcoin if the dollar index plunges through its last support.

I see very little chance of the dollar rising from here. With the US economy at full employment, the Trump administration going all out tariffs blazing and slapping sanctions left and right, there are going to be more dollars for less goods pretty soon.