With Americans going to the polls in three weeks, and many having voted already, all signs are pointing to former Vice President Joe Biden winning the election, possibly in a landslide. But we’ve done this song and dance before, most recently in 2016. Could the massive lead Biden has in national polls be a mirage, and could Trump beat him in key battleground states?

There’s two ways to forecast an answer to these questions. If you just want to talk about the election horserace, sites like fivethirtyeight have wonderful forecast models and give a great picture of what polling has to say about the election. But if you’re looking to gamble, Bodog has state by state odds. I’m going to look at both of them.

Solid Trump states

Trump has 20 states that, either by the odds or by the polls, you can consider him heavily favored. Trump has odds of -450 or better, or a 7-point lead in the polls, in: