If you’re following the U.S. election from afar or paying close attention, you’ve probably heard one common refrain: “I don’t believe these polls.” You’ll hear it from cable news anchors and late night comedians alike. And it could mean that betting odds really are the better indicator of who’s going to win this election.

In recently released polls, Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Presidential Donald Trump by as much as 5% in Florida. The fivethirtyeight.com average has him ahead by 2.2% with a 65% chance to win the state. Such a win would likely mean he beats Trump by a landslide on election night.

The problem is, nobody, and I mean nobody, believes this is going to happen. Even those that want Biden to win don’t expect him to win by that much:

Another Florida poll today, this one with Biden up 5. Pollsters badly botched the Sunshine State two years ago, so I remain skeptical that Biden could ever win by more than 1% in a state Republicans have owned this century. https://t.co/ZWftGCbJlU