International Game Technology may be doing the best with the hand it has been dealt. The problem is, that may not be good enough. Its huge 113% move since February reflects is slow crawl out of its losses, and it is now almost breakeven. In terms of pure net income, IGT has swung from a $139M loss in the first 3 quarters of 2015, to a positive $15M. That is quite a turnaround and it is thanks to its merger with GTECH and some smart management moves. But as for shareholders of IGT PLC proper, the company is still operating at a net loss for shareholders because most of that income is attributable to noncontrolling interests, once again from the GTECH deal.

That’s not so bad by itself considering the positive direction, but factor in a P/E ratio of over 100, debt leverage of 150% in the face of a spectacular run since February and things look a little off-kilter to a fundamentalist investor. We can try to do some accounting magic and play around with the numbers to make things look better, but in the end it doesn’t quite work out.

Say we shave off the protected debt not subject to interest rates. As of the last annual report, 28% of IGT’s $8.3B debt is subject to floating rates. That puts it at leverage of 42%, not bad, but that takes into account the huge run in shares since February. If we put IGT back at its lows, leverage goes back up to 100%.

Maybe that’s not fair, and we can just count it at 42%. Fine, that sounds OK, but dig a little deeper into its debt repayment calendar and there could be some big trouble ahead over the next 3 years. $551M in principle is due in 2018. Another $888M is due in 2019. That’s $1.44B over the next two years. They may need to refinance, but at what interest rates? By the end of the year rates almost certainly be much higher as the Fed is on a rate hike path and other central banks could follow. But the big trouble is in 2020. Over $2B in principle will be due then. Almost definitely they will need to refinance at that point, and by 2020 this will be a very different world. All these numbers will change once we have the new annual report in a few days, but it’s not likely to show huge changes in debt structure.