This week may be the last week to lock in Macau profits until the winter. If you still own Macau stocks and haven’t at least lightened positions to keep some profits, I suggest doing so on the upcoming earnings reports. Wynn, Las Vegas Sands, and MGM are all reporting earnings this week. Whether they beat or not is not really the issue, but rather what happens next.
The sentiment surrounding Macau right now is quite bullish, and these are good conditions for at least lightening positions. Wynn is right near its 52-week high, by itself a technical signal that will trigger at least some selling by technicians who look at nothing but chart patterns. Beyond the technicals, we have the ongoing monetary situation, with dollar supply growth bottoming out around mid-to-late August at dangerously low levels. Even if Wynn doesn’t decline through the whole month of August, it is very unusual for a major to trend higher when the dollar supply is not growing. If you sell now, there is a small possibility you won’t dodge any significant decline, but the chances are miniscule that you will be missing any significant rally.
What if Wynn beats estimates? This will likely cause a brief pop in the stock where you can probably take profits at a slightly better price. Some stocks always beat estimates. Wynn has been 50/50 since 2014. In 8 of 14 quarters since 4Q2013, Wynn has beaten EPS estimates. That’s a rate of higher than 50% through one of the worst bear markets that Macau has ever seen.
There have been no major attacks against the VIP market this quarter in China save an off-the-cuff warning from a junket firm about moving money around, so there aren’t likely to be any major downside surprises here. The downside surprises are more likely to happen in mid-to-late August, when the monetary situation reaches its trough. We are likely to see a sharp but quick selloff in almost everything. If you’re a Macau fan, the time to buy for at least a short term trade will be then, not now with Macau stocks near 52-week highs.