The Sanford C. Bernstein brokerage has reiterated the expectation that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is going to suffer this month. It forecasts that the GGR could contract by a minimum of 8%, but that it could reach as high as 12%, year-on-year. The predictions are slightly more bleak than those offered by Japan-based brokerage Nomura and, if accurate, would be the first time in almost two years that Macau’s GGR has retracted.

Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu state that the GGR in the gambling mecca for the week of January 7 – 13 saw a downturn due to several factors, including “continued enforcement of the smoking ban; the crackdown of the illegal point-of-sale scheme; and visitation slowdown in anticipation of the Chinese New Year in early February.”

The smoking ban was introduced on January 1, 2018, but casinos were given a year’s grace period to come into compliance with smoking at tables in VIP rooms. There are still a number of casinos that have not implemented the new smoking regulations, which include completely closed smoking lounges and advanced smoke extraction equipment.

The “illegal point-of-sale scheme” reference stems from a scam that allegedly moved $153 million from China to Macau last year, and which resulted in the evasion of China’s currency export controls. That investigation is still active.