In the past we’ve done the MGM indicator and extended it into boxing with Mayweather Pacquiao. The MGM indicator turns green when visitor volume there increases. It generally means that people have more money in their pockets to gamble with, and provides a decent proxy for how much people are willing to spend in the rest of the economy. MGM volume is up 2% over the last 9 months, so we’re not in any bust phase yet. While the cue won’t give investors any workable clues as to when and when not to buy MGM specifically, it does seem to work for the rest of the economy.

The last time the MGM indicator went green was in November of 2014. MGM itself hasn’t done much since then in terms of its stock price, and neither has the US stock market in general, but the economy does continue to trudge slowly forward with unemployment continuing to step down. There may be another important proxy indicator in the Super Bowl, and what direction it moves in this year could say a lot about where we are headed in 2016 and 2017.

The LA Times had a telling piece out yesterday plotting regulated Las Vegas betting on Super Bowls since 2003. Here’s the chart:

There are three notable things about the data here. First, we saw a peak in regulated Super Bowl betting in 2006, the same year the housing market topped. Second, after that the numbers dragged down slowly through 2008, and 2009 was the huge drop off, for obvious reasons. Then there was a big boom in 2014 followed by the first drop in regulated Super Bowl betting volume since 2008. The last time that happened we were two and a half years away from a major recession, so the numbers could be quite telling this year.  Considering the size of the boom though from 2013 to 2014, last year’s drop could simply be noise from any number of factors, but if the drop continues it could mean trouble.