By: Tony Samboras
With the Breeders Cup just over three weeks away, owner and trainers are coming to the realization that more is at stake than a victory in a Breeders Cup race. Many horses will be running for year-end divisional honors to cap off a great year of racing. For three horses in particular, the coveted “Horse of the Year” is there for the taking.
The Three Best Candidates
In a year of competitive racing where most divisional honors remain wide open, the H.O.Y. honors come down to three legitimate challengers. Assuming all three horses make it into a Breeders Cup race, the three challengers are American Pharaoh, Beholder and Honor Code. Here’s a look at the scenarios that earn each horse with the trophy.
American Pharaoh – After becoming the first horse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown, many would assume the title is American Pharaoh’s by default. Not so fast. He does have five Grade I victories (Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Haskell), but he did get beat by a horse eligible for NW2X in the Grade I Travers. Should he win the Breeders Cup Classic, the deal is sealed and you will be looking at a unanimous H.O.Y. winner. However, he has yet to face or beat an older horse and should Beholder or Honor Code win the Classic and beat him on the square, the voters have got a lot of questions to answer. If neither of those other two horse win a Breeders Cup race, American Pharaoh should win the title easily no matter how he performs.
Beholder – Lost in the shuffle created by American Pharaoh’s Triple Crown run was another amazing year for the brilliant mare Beholder. She’s a perfect five for five on the year with the last three wins coming in Grade I races. More importantly, she absolutely destroyed a decent field of male horses in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar two races back. She has yet to break a sweat in any of her races, which indicates the racing world has not seen her best yet. All of that said, the connections (Spendthrift Farm LLC and trainer Richard Mandella) are faced with a huge decision. They could run her in the Distaff on October 30. She would be odds-on and would probably win for fun. If this is the chosen path, they would need both American Pharaoh and Honor Code to be beaten badly in order for Beholder to have a shot at the title. The other path would be to run her against the boys in the Classic and let the cards fall where they may.
Honor Code – Of the three contenders, Honor Code has the toughest path to the H.O.Y. title. He’s in the running because of victories in the Grade I Metropolitan Mile at Belmont and Grade I Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. These are arguably the two most prestigious races in the nation for older horses. The only real chance he has to claim the title is to enter and win the Classic beating both Beholder and American Pharaoh. Any other result would leave him markedly short. The biggest problem is that his connections might opt for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.
As the Breeders Cup approaches, online race books will have free bet offers for free bets on the races at Keeneland. If you can find free bet offers, the best value in the Breeders Cup might be putting your free bets on Beholder at around 5-2 in the Breeders Cup Classic over the boys.