Category Archives: Featured

American Pharoah’s Jockey Key to Horse Racing Success?

By Joe Favorito @JoeFav @TheDailyPayoff

American Pharoah captured the imagination of the sports world when Victor Espinoza rode the Bob Baffert-trained/Zayat Stable-owned three-year-old colt to rousing victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to become the first Triple Crown king since 1978 when Affirmed and jockey Steve Cauthen turned the “hat trick.”

American Pharoah became the 12th Triple Crown champion in history on Saturday, June 6, with his emphatic Belmont triumph, after 13-straight Derby/Preakness winners were thwarted in the third jewel at Belmont.

As the sun came up Sunday, the champion horse was getting ready to return to his stable down south, with the plans for what’s next still to be determined. There was a short victory lap of media, but the window of shots with horse in tow closed very fast, until the plans for when the American public, and the racing world, can double down on the horse once again. Saratoga this summer? The Breeders Cup?

In short, this is the problem horse racing has. The short window of excitement comes and it goes – ESPN’s radio host Colin Cowherd rammed this point home this week on his show – , and while The Jockey Club and some of the new leaders of horse racing are trying to extend the window and keep fans engaged, it competes with the likes of the NBA Finals, The Stanley Cup, baseball, and whatever else is right in front of us on screens and social media.

Springing onto the scene is a new face of racing, however, who can hopefully keep the heartbeat pumping.

Victor Espinoza, the telegenic, light-hearted, philanthropic-minded, storytelling jockey who rode the legendary horse to the Triple Crown dream can be that savior. While brands like “Wheels Up” and Monster Energy took the ride last Saturday at The Belmont, it was Espinoza who delivered the sponsor messages.

When Monster got eased out of some tight shots on NBC, Espinoza found a way to work the brand back into the conversation with some humorous and well-timed mentions. When the New York Mets needed a first pitch this week to celebrate the big race just outside Queens, Espinoza was on the mound. When talk shows, any talk show, wanted to talk about the race, he was there again, smiling and re-telling the tales to an audience that was interested and engaged, whether it was a morning show or Charley Rose.

For the longest time media types have tried to push the jockey story as the one the American public can successfully grab on to as the horse racing season unfolds. Many come from very diverse backgrounds, they are constantly on the go, they have to deal with very challenging health issues and a wide variety of personalities from trainers to owners, the taste the agony of defeat probably more than the thrill of victory, and their multi-ethnic backgrounds can appeal to a diverse audience.

Espinoza, with a winning pedigree and now a crowning success, is the great example of what can be done with an elite group. With the proper messaging they can deliver brand value, and they are the constantly visible billboard for traditional advertising with little limits. While they may not have huge amounts of downtime, for the right price their schedule is manageable, as they are treated like independent contractors, and their hardscrabble life, and the living in the fast lane on many days, can even appeal to a younger generation.

There has been some attempt at reality shows around jockeys in the past, which met with various degrees of success. Now with the implement of micro-cameras, digital technology and social media the access and the storytelling around jockeys can be even greater, and they themselves present the constant for racing when even the brightest and best horses come and go during their short racing periods.

Have jockeys become celebrities in the past? On occasion we got a Lafitte Pincay, a Julie Crone, a Ron Turcotte, an Eddie Arcaro, a Rosie Napravnik or a Gary Stevens, but for the most part the jockeys, especially the majority who are Latino, get lost in the mix. Maybe with the story and the engagement of Espinoza, that ability to cross over, something that matches the changing demo of the American population, may be changing, and with that change comes the rise of crossover stars that help the industry bridge the gap until fans cast their eyes back to the track.

It was a great weekend for racing, one that was extended by the rider of the legendary horse, an athlete who is becoming a brand on to himself, and someone who is maybe giving us a peek into a new breed of engaging and interesting personality, with a view from atop such majestic animals.

Willie Geist Talks Thoroughbred Racing

By @TheDailyPayoff

Willie Geist, co-host of NBC’s Today Show and MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”,  shared some thoughts on thoroughbred racing with America’s Best Racing recently, revealing, among other things – his favorite jockey, his heroes (not the same jockey) and his No. 1 bucket list item.

The author of “Good Talk, Dad: The Birds and the Bees..and Other Conversations We Forgot to Have,” Geist talks about his first racing event, and his first Kentucky Derby, “The deal was closed the first time I sent to the Kentucky Derby in 1995.” and a few other notable items.

For a full read of the interview, go to : http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/news-stories/2015/6/10/q-and-a-with-today-show-co-host-willie-geist/

With A Historic Saturday In The Books, We Asked What’s Next For Horse Racing?

With A Historic Saturday In The Books, We Asked What’s Next For Horse Racing?

So with American Pharoah’s run into the history books now complete, what’s next for horse racing in the United States? How does an industry slow on the uptake capture and expand what could be next? Are there brands like Monster Energy, Draft Kings and Wheels Up…or even Burger King…that entered the racing picture Saturday at Belmont and will now learn more and come back? We caught up with Stephen Panus from The Jockey Club to ask that very question.

“(Saturday) was a beautiful day for one of America’s oldest and most thrilling of sports as the nation and globe witnessed a dominant performance by a superstar race horse, American Pharoah. Rather fitting that it happened on the 350th anniversary of the first horse race being held in the United States. In 1665, the construction of the Newmarket course in Salisbury, New York, a section of what is now known as the Hempstead Plains of Long Island, New York, was established. The rest, as they say, is history. America’s history. America’s Best Racing will be launching a video ad campaign next week, coincidentally, celebrating this historic anniversary using the hashtag #Celebrating350.

The brilliant coverage by NBC Sports combined with the power of social media provides the sport with an opportunity to welcome in new fans while showcasing the many other big event days at destination race tracks across the country. America’s Best Racing – It’s fun, thrilling, an affordable sports and entertainment option, you dress up, sip cocktails, gamble, socialize with old and new friends and experience unparalleled adrenaline rushes.

There is something for everyone in horse racing as beautiful destination race tracks are scattered across the country, each offering its own unique atmosphere, food and beverage offerings and culture. From the Bluegrass of Kentucky, where iconic Keeneland will serve as the host of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup this October 30-31 and where the Run for the Roses happens every first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, to Gulfstream Park in South Florida, to Pimlico and the Preakness in Baltimore, to New York which offers great summer racing at the historic Saratoga Racecourse in upstate New York bookended by racing at Belmont Park, to Arlington Park just outside Chicago. There also are many compelling smaller venues which offer festival-style racing and short circuits. There is no questioning that passionate fans comprise horse racing’s diverse fandom. Lively debates compare and contrast Del Mar vs. Saratoga for summer racing, for example, and everyone has their favorite race track for their own, highly personal reasons or memories.

Our goal is to leverage the popularity of the Road to the Triple Crown to carry forward the interest and intrigue by so many soon-to-be racing fans into the sport’s second season, The Road to the Breeders’ Cup (Oct 30-31 at Keeneland). The taboo associated with gambling has evaporated in the last few years and more and more sports and casual bettors are coming to realize that gambling on horse racing is fun, thrilling, analytical and profitable. In fact, the Breeders’ Cup offers two days of championship races in late October (including the richest horse race held on American soil, the $5M Breeders’ Cup Classic – where American Pharoah is pointing to end his 2015 campaign) where the fields will be stacked 12 and 13 horses deep with the best horses and some incredible odds for the betting public. I would respectfully suggest that the Breeders’ Cup is the most underrated major sports event in America. It’s an experience of a lifetime and one of the best 2-day parties you will ever attend.

For the new and casual fan, whose adrenaline was jolted and aroused by American Pharoah’s run to history, who now asks what is the Breeders’ Cup? We offer this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikmP3ELuqyo

(Saturday’s) epic run to history will elevate the sport of horse racing into more mainstream channels and discussions. Water cooler talk on Monday AM will center around American Pharoah’s epic Belmont victory, the roar of the crowd that jumped through televisions across the US and hopefully will serve to inspire many of the millions of television viewers who are new to the sport to desire to attend a day at the races and experience the adrenaline rush, excitement and thrills in-person. Horse racing has much to offer the Millennial generation – it’s affordable, fun, and communal. You dress up, enjoy cocktails, wager against your peers. It’s a party and a unique social sports experience. Horse racing’s big events continue to grow in popularity, attendance and handle. The goal is to leverage the exposure and opportunity at-hand to welcome and embrace soon-to-be racing fans into the sport by offering multiple touch points of entry and access. And, www.AmericasBestRacing.net is the perfect platform for them to enter, learn and have fun.

While day-to-day attendance at race tracks has certainly dropped over the years, the advent of technology and digital and social media enables new fans to engage with our sport from a variety of places and all via their phone, Ipad or tablet. And horse racing remains the only sport you can legally wager on via the internet. All that adds up to an opportunity for the sport moving forward.”

It was a great weekend for American sport, and a landmark weekend for racing. Let’s hope it continues.

Mondogoal Takes a Gamble on FIFA’s Women’s World Cup

Mondogoal Takes a Gamble on FIFA’s Women’s World Cup

By TERRY LYONS, Contributing columnist for The Daily Payoff
@terrylyons

The United States of America’s Justice Department’s beat-down on the upper echelon executives of FIFA brought a bit more than a small share of criticism and focus upon the governing body for world futbol. It brought an all-out public relations disaster as the lead story on every network newscast in the world, and even worse, FIFA’s downfall became the punch line for comedic genius such as “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” or “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.”

The early morning arrests of several FIFA executives by Swiss authorities at the posh Baur au Lac hotel in Zurich fast-became the b-roll for a generation of FIFA’s critics. As the raid was barely underway, with charges under the USA’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), detailed accusations and background were printed in the morning editions of The New York Times which brought a level of seriousness that organized futbol has never seen, but its fans had long expected. The accusations were wide-ranging and were enough to eventually cause the resignation of longtime FIFA president Sepp Blatter. The fall-out will continue for the rest of the year as the US Justice Department’s Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch, builds the case.

The focus of the alleged corruption and bribery charge was centered on FIFA’s designation of Russia (2018) and Qatar (2022) as World Cup event sites but caught in the crosshairs of the scandal is the fact the 2015 Women’s World Cup is being staged in Canada from June 6 to July 5, right on the front doorstep of the FIFA scandal. One might think the highly visible RICO charges for such a highly visible world event might be cause for the sponsors and affiliates of the Women’s World Cup to run for the Hudson Bay, but that has not been the case as the women kick-off in Canada.

Event sponsors, already neck-deep in their investment, have turned a blind eye to the off-the-pitch misconduct and are focusing on the athletes and competition itself.
One such affiliate is Mondogoal, a relatively new player in the daily fantasy sports world, which is staging a daily fantasy game for the Women’s World Cup. While not an “official” sponsor of FIFA, Mondogoal operates globally and focuses its efforts in the United States, Britain, Canada, Ireland and Brazil – all hotbeds of international futbol. The company is incorporated out of the Isle of Man and has business operations in the USA. Mondogoal’s Women’s World Cup offering will be the first fantasy game ever staged for women’s sport.

“The Women’s World Cup is a phenomenal platform for the game, and will draw not just passionate soccer fans but a casual audience interested in women’s sports and a global event,” said Shergul Arshad, CEO of Mondogoal. “By creating this game for a global audience we will provide a new engagement platform, which we believe, will raise the visibility and interest not just for soccer but for women’s sports as well.
“In North America, daily fantasy sports has taken off, and interest in soccer is at an all-time high. We are making sure the North American soccer fan not only can play fantasy contests involving the popular European leagues, but also from the best soccer, locally,” he said.

To that end, Mondogoal is offering fantasy players a way to blend both the Women’s World Cup players with those of men’s competitions being staged at the same time, notably in North America’s Major League Soccer (MLS), Europe’s Champions League final and the Copa America. The new blend will be the first time fantasy sports is offered on a “Co-Ed” basis.

Digging into the particulars, daily fantasy players can pick a team of 11 female players from the four Women’s World Cup matches on event days, using Mondogoal’s salary cap style of play to build a fantasy team. If the fantasy player doesn’t like the full offering from the women’s matches, they can mix and match with the men’s contests taking place the same day. As with all fantasy products, points are accrued for positive “on-the-pitch” statistics, such as goals, and assists. The fantasy winner is the person who picks the perfect fantasy team of players who compile the most positive statistics for the entire day.

Mondogoal has a deal with Perform’s Opta Sports to compile all the various stats – in real time – and tracks the nuances of the obvious stats, but also tackles won-lost, shots on goal, passes completed, or stats for goaltenders, like saves and shut-outs.
The take-away from Mondogoal’s foray into women’s sports, via the Women’s World Cup, is the fact the daily fantasy sports world is moving full speed ahead and flourishing. While some may think daily fantasy is a little too close to actually gambling on the outcome of a game, the fact of the matter is that daily fantasy might just have more credibility than the FIFA executives carted off in the dawn air in Zurich.

American Pharoah Bucking History for Triple Crown

By Frank Scandale @FScandale @TheDailyPayoff

Any number of factors could go against American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown on Saturday, not the least of which is history.
While the pre-race reports about everything from his glistening coat to his unbridled energy continue to fuel the hopes of millions that he can break the 37-year drought, history’s heartbreak lurks around each turn. And bettors know that.

Joe Kristufek, one of America’s Best Racing ambassadors and the racing analyst for Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, noted that if you are a bettor, you have to look at the trends.
“A lot of people who are gamblers and like any sport, they have to look at the trends,” he said. “At the Belmont Stakes, in addition to the fact that no horse has won the Triple Crown since 1978, and since 1996 only two favorites have won this race, and no Triple Crown winner has ever beaten seven horses in the Belmont…there is lots of history going against American Pharoah.”
Then he paused.
“That said, trends are there to be broken and, really, how good he is and how well he is doing, I think he will win.”
In Las Vegas, the gamblers are getting excited for the race, says Johnny Avello, race and sports book director at Wynn Las Vegas. He’s been studying the film of the three Triple Crown winners in the 1970s, the decade many call the Golden Era in horse racing, as well as the races of those who had a chance and came up short. During the seventies, the last era there was a winner, race fans were treated to Triple Crown winners Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) ..

“We had three during the seventies and not one since,” he said. “Thirteen have tried, but none has won it. If we don’t get it this year, it will be disappointing. It will look like it will never happen.”
Avello said American Pharoah is the best of the group in this race. While not fresh – he ran the Preakness two weeks ago – he is a touch better than any other horse in the race.
Both Avello and Kristufek see scenarios that could thwart American Pharaoh’s heroic efforts to date. With rain down to a 10 percent chance in New York on Saturday, that element that American Pharaoh thrived in at the Preakness is an unlikely aid for him this time.

But Kristufek says if a muddy and drying track is presented, that could create some “randomness.”

Sitting in the fifth post in the eight-horse field, American Pharoah was 3-5 in the morning line. Some see Materiality (6-1), a fresh horse, possibly exhausting American Pharoah, and then letting Frosted (5-1) sneak by him.

Avello, whose book has American Pharaoh at 5-7 currently, can see the possibility of Frosted sitting behind American Pharaoh the whole race and then pulling ahead toward the end of the 1.5 mile race, the longest of the three Triple Crown legs.

“There are so many scenarios,” he quipped. But he hopes the track is dry and the weather does not play a factor because there are so many good horses on the card all day, that it would be unfortunate if unfavorable track conditions played a role.
So what is the play, Johnny?

“The play? I think nothing is sure in this game, but American Pharoah finishes first or second, and the question is who is above or below him? That is difficult. I will have to see the prices 15 or 20 minutes out,” Avello said.

Kristufek sees playing the Exacta as well, but picking the second horse is also difficult.

He had American Pharoah at 3-5 in the morning line, but could go to 2-5.
With a fast track, he says 70 percent odds American Pharaoh wins. Twenty percent Frosted wins. Ten percent Materiality wins.

One thing is for sure on Saturday. There will be 20,000 fewer fans in the stands because of restrictions imposed on the size of the crowd. In past years, complaints about overcrowding and over taxed facilities inside the track led to this year’s reduction.

The other thing both Avello and Kristufek are sure of is that many bettors will not cash the winning ticket if it is American Pharoah.

“Oh, they are holding that ticket,” Avello said.

It’s the least fans could do for the horse that might buck history.

 

 

 

Lyons Column – The Belmont

By TERRY LYONS, The Daily Payoff Contributing Columnist
@terrylyons

NEW YORK – In this instant gratification and “everything is the best” sports world we currently live in, courtesy of the never-ending, 24/7 cable news and sports-talk radio, how often can we truly say we have a chance to see a true champion accomplish one of the greatest feats in sports?

That chance will come on Saturday, June 6, when the gates open at beautiful Belmont Park and, on an spring evening in New York, trainer Bob Baffert saddles up thoroughbred great American Pharoah for the 147th running of The Belmont Stakes. It will mark the 34th time a racehorse is shipped to the famed track, located halfway between LaGaurdia and JFK Airports, with a chance to win the most coveted title in the sport of kings, that being “The Triple Crown,” or victories in the Kentucky Derby, The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes.

As most sports fans and all horse racing aficionados know, the Belmont is the toughest horse race of them all. While the Derby (1 mile and a quarter) and Preakness (1 mile and three-sixteenths) each measure slightly more than a country mile, the track at the Belmont is mapped at a grueling mile and a half, a distance which tests the stamina and heart of a horse, the way The Iditarod tests the endurance and will of a sled dog and his musher.

History tells us, the last Triple Crown winner was the great Affirmed, in 1978 – a horse pushed by his chief rival, Alydar, in the same manner in which Magic pushed Bird or Frazier pushed Ali. Between the time when Affirmed took The Belmont and today, there have been 23 champion thoroughbreds who came to this city of dreams with victories in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, winning in Kentucky and Maryland, only to have their legacies dashed with losses at The Belmont. The list is lofty, and includes:

• Most recently, in 2014, California Chrome who finished fourth in The Belmont.

• Ten years before that, in 2004, the popular Smarty Jones, finished second.

• An interesting string of close calls from 1997-99 when Silver Charm (2nd), Real Quiet (2nd) and Charistmatic (3rd) all fell short at The Belmont.

Before Affirmed in 1978, there was, arguably, the greatest stretch-run, the greatest ass-kicking, the greatest victory margin in a clutch situation in sports history – the 1973 Belmont Stakes victory for the best and most powerful horse I’ve ever set eyes on – Secretariat.

Secretariat’s win in the final leg of the Triple Crown was perfect, just perfect. How often can you say an athletic feat in the most important of sports events was perfect?

The only other performance that can be compared to Secretariat’s great run is New York Yankees legend Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. While there have been other great performances in all major sports, there are no other rightful comparisons to Secretariat’s run.

Can American Pharoah become a Triple Crown champion?

Yes.

But jockey Victor Espinoza will need to guide his Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion on a near-perfect trip and avoid the slew Belmont-busters entered as spoilers in the lengthy endurance test of a mile and a half around the dirt track.

Why is it so difficult for a horse to win the Triple Crown?

“It’s supposed to be hard,” said John Cirillo, the president of his Cirillo World communications firm and a noted racing and handicapping guru who started his career as the PR guy at Yonkers Raceway.

“Three races in five weeks is grueling on a three-year old colt, many are still developing and their races usually spaced a month to six weeks apart.

“Secondly, Belmont is a tricky track and surface, known as ‘Big Sandy’ as a deep and tiring track surface. Then, you have the ‘Racing Gods’ and that means, like in all sports, you need to have some luck.

“War Emblem, another who won the first two legs for the Baffert-Espinoza combo, stumbled at the start in the Belmont in 2002 and lost all chance while I’ll Have Another was injured in 2012 and never even got the chance to race for history. Real Quiet missed by a nostril in ’98.”

Come June 6th, we very well could see American Pharoah become a Triple Crown winner to break the 36-year drought and become only the fourth horse to take the three races in the 67 years since the great Citation won in 1948.

NJ Casino Expansion Idea Heats Up

By Frank Scandale @FScandale @TheDailyPayoff

Gov. Chris Christie’s comments on 101.5 radio Wednesday has stirred visions of jackpots in northern New Jersey.

With everything from a poll by NJ.com that showed almost a 60-40 split in favor of a casino in the northern part of the state by Thursday late afternoon to a well-regarded gambling expert in the Garden State agreeing such a casino could be the most lucrative in the country, the governor’s statements fueled more speculation for an upcoming referendum.

“I have absolutely no problem with that question going on the ballot right away,” Christie said on New Jersey 101.5 FM. “The competition’s only going to grow, in New York in particular. And so, if we could plant our flag firmly in the ground, I think it would make the project even more successful.”

His comments came a day after New Jersey Sen. Ray Lesniak, whose district sits in the northern part of the state, said he would push for a referendum in November that would also call for $1 billion in revenue from such a casino to be redirected to South Jersey, according to The Press of Atlantic City. Gov. Christie also said he would approve the ballot measure if it had a component such as the one Lesniak outlined.

And his comments come against the background of an announcement that next Wednesday the Hard Rock International and Meadowlands Racing & Entertainment will detail their concept of a Hard Rock Casino in the Meadowlands. The pitch will be a potential of $400 million in annual revenue that would provide tax relief and rebuild Atlantic City, says the HudsonReporter.com

A separate poll by The Press of Atlantic City shows overwhelming opposition to the proposal, with 63 percent against the idea, 21 percent for it as long as revenue gets funneled to the South, and almost 16 percent voting for secession from North Jersey. http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com

The difference in the polls could be explained by the fact that NJ.com draws much of its readership from the central and northern parts of the state. It is affiliated with the Star Ledger, which is based in Newark in the north.

Just how realistic is the concept of a casino or more in North Jersey depends on how serious those with money want to push the issue, according to a state expert from Stockton University, located in the southern part of the state.

“It is true that a pole we did a year ago had far more people who expressed their opinion opposed to the idea,” said Izzy Posner, Executive Director, Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism at Stockton University. “When it comes to these issues, a lot of big money will support one side or the other.”

The Washington Post reported that when Maryland proposed building a casino on the edge of the nation’s capital, approximately $90 million was spent by parties supporting and opposing the measure. Posner sees that scenario shaping up in New Jersey.

At the heart of the debate is the division between North Jersey, which is densely populated and located just miles from New York City, and South Jersey, where Atlantic City casinos reside. As the city and the casino business have battled erosion these last few years, those with interests in the south fear a casino beachhead say in The Meadowlands of Bergen County, would further exacerbate the problem. The olive branch seems to be the redirection of large amounts of northern New Jersey casino revenue to the south, as proposed by Sen. Lesniak and endorsed by the governor.

Posner added: “Many interests will see southern New Jersey as a loser if casino gambling comes to North Jersey. Others see the benefits mitigated by some of tax revenue coming back to South Jersey.”

Currently, a contingent of South Jersey state legislators are expressing opposition, as well.

What Posner does see is a geographic competition ramping up as the fight for gambling dollars becomes more central to states’ economic health.

“You certainly  are seeing Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut competing for gamblers. And the comments about a casino in North Jersey possibly being the most successful in the country is not hyperbole, says Posner.

Citing Aqueduct Racetrack’s casino, Resorts World Casino, in Queens, NY, Posner said that casino’s success suggests a fully licensed casino in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, for instance, could set records.

“It’s the most densely populated piece of real estate in the US and one of the most wealthy between North Jersey and Connecticut, so that kind of money would not surprise me,” Posner said.

View additional sources: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/05/poll_do_you_favor_allowing_casinos_being_built_in.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/politically-connected-firms-hit-jackpot-in-maryland-casino-fight/2012/11/17/f377cfb4-2e76-11e2-89d4-040c9330702a_story.html

 Hudson Reporter – Hard Rock Casino Meadowlands a possibility

 

Triple Crown Hopeful American Pharoah has a Tale (Tail) To tell

By @TheDailyPayoff

Can Triple Crown hopeful American Pharoah win by a tail?

Does the winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness have an advantage because of an abnormality in his tail end?

Read writer David Hill’s account on America’s Best Racing site to get the inside story.

view original source: http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/blogs/2015/5/28/the-aerodynamic-advantage-of-american-pharoahs-short-tail/

– See more at: http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/blogs/2015/5/28/the-aerodynamic-advantage-of-american-pharoahs-short-tail/#sthash.7Vld3kws.dpuf

NJ Gov. Christie Supports Casino Expansion to North Jersey

By @TheDailyPayoff

Citing the gambling competition by other casinos, the governor of New Jersey today said he would have no problem with placing a referendum on the ballot to ultimately expand casino gambling in the northen part of the state, according to a report on NJ.com.

He tied his support to the initiative as long as the revenue helped revitalize ailing Atlantic City.

View Original source: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/05/christie_favors_expanding_gaming_to_northern_nj_sa.html#incart_river

Las Vegas Weekend Action Talk

By Frank Scandale @FScandale @TheDailyPayoff

Las Vegas bookmakers are busier in May than accountants are in April, and this weekend has them taking action on more games and sports than Alex Rodriguez has homers.

Each week, The Daily Payoff will attempt to elicit from some well-regarded Las Vegas odds makers what games and events bettors are finding interesting as the weekend approaches.

This weekend, for instance, fresh off the insanity of Deflategate and The Preakness hysteria known as American Pharoah, bookmakers are looking instead at a smorgasbord of sports instead. No one event is commanding as much attention as say the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight and the Kentucky Derby, but some money is flowing into everything else.

Conference finals in basketball for one book maker is the focus, while another sees the NBA and the NHL as decent draws because he says the New York Rangers always bring in extra betting.

Johnny Avello Horizontal 2 4Mg“The Rangers are one of those hockey teams we take a lot of money on every year,” said Johnny Avello, executive director race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas. “If it were Rangers and Black Hawks in the finals, it would be best for networks and good for us. But if it were Rangers and Anaheim, that could be an all out war.”

Jimmy Vaccaro, director of the race and sports operations at South Point Casino, is cool on hockey in general, saying it is a niche sport that doesn’t bring in much action regardless of which teams are playing. But the prospect of a Cleveland Cavaliers-Golden State Warriors final has him excited.

Unknown“Right now, most of us here are rooting for an extra 10-15 percent handle if the Caveliers would play Golden State for championship,” Vaccaro said. ” “It has marquee value and since June is one of the slowest months, we’ll take any help we can get and it would help if Lebron were playing Curry in the finals.”

And while a UFC light heavyweight title fight at the MGM Grand, some college lacrosse semi-final games  and the French Open will all generate some influxes for this weekend, all eyes are already on the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 6.

With the specter of  American Pharaoh being the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed took the crown, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apBIGFWMFr0 , Avello and Vaccaro both are anticipating a bonanza of business.

“I’m writing tons of business,” Avello said.

“The Belmont will be a very good day,” added Vaccaro. “It might challenge what we do for the Derby. People want to be part of history.”Avello said his top three favorites and accompanying odds are American Pharoah at 10-11, Frosted at 4-1 and Materiality at 9-2. He suggested coming to Las Vegas in person if you are going to bet the race because the odds are better there than at the track and the “hold” percentage is 4.5 percent in Las Vegas as opposed to 16 percent at the track.

Vaccaro said it doesn’t matter what other horses are in the race from his point of view. All the betting is on whether Amerian Pharoah wins or loses.

“Most of the ticket will be on American Pharaoh. When you get into these situatons, a lot of people are buying $2 and $5 tickets and they won’t even cash them. They’ll just take them home. A lot of souvenier hunters will gobble them up.”

After the Triple Crown, the next big thing looming is the U.S. Open golf championship starting the week of June 15. VegasInsider.com, for instance, has Rory McIlroy as the the 7-1 favorite, with Jordan Speith next at 17-2 and , believe it or not, Tiger Woods at 15-1.

Vaccaro said only the Masters golf tournament generates any real financial excitement of all the majors.

“The Masters is quite different,” he said. “Tiger’s influence is waning each year he doesn’t win anything, but he still draws, just not as much.”

And then there’s baseball.

“Then summer kicks in middle of June, and you can bet any sport you want, as long as it’s baseball,”Avello cracked.

Before the season started, he said odds makers were seeing the favorites as the Angels, Tigers and Boston. “A lot of teams people were expecting big things from. But now the Royals are playing well and the Astros are getting big play. It’s still a long way to go and there will be more (odds) changes.

“In the National league, the Nationals, the Cardinals and the Dodgers are still the favorites,” he added. “But there are a lot of teams in the mix. People are betting the Mets, the Padres, and the Cubs all the time. “

Yankees?

“Yankees are in a division that is up for grabs. When the dust clears, one of the five teams can win.”

For now, the Yankees are 16-1, he said.

But if you want to load up an a real long shot for next month, look at Bradley Neil and Gunn Yang. Who? Right.

But both are 2,000-1 to win the U.S. Open

 

Corruption Threatens Global Sports Gambling

By @TheDailyPayoff

In case you missed it, ESPN.com’s David Purdum posted a story yesterday on how the “integrity monitors” of sports gambling are looking to the United States to take the lead in pushing for legalizing sports betting in an effort to clean up the corruption running rampant now.
He quoted a global sports security expert who said crime syndicates out of Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia were pushing European soccer, for instance, into the “danger zone” when it comes to fixing matches.
Read Purdum’s full report here :”
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12925786/why-legalization-sports-betting-only-first-step-us-gambling

Fantasy Betting Has Long Been Part of the Scene – Just ask Mets and Yankee fans

Fantasy Betting Has Long Been Part of the Scene – Just ask Mets and Yankee fans

By TERRY LYONS, Contributing Columnist
@terrylyons @The Daily Payoff

The intersection of sports gambling and fantasy sports has been a key crossroad of the American sports scene long before the daily fantasy providers were sinking millions into a constant stream of radio and television ads.

While betting on the outcome of games, usually on a money line, might’ve put former Cincinnati Reds great Pete Rose in a predicament, the average baseball fan has long enjoyed the thrill of predicting the future.  Whether handicapping the pitching duel or wagering ridiculously on the very next pitch being a ball or strike, the experience has captivated the fans.

As the current climate continues to change, quicker than the ice melts in Antartica, the leading sports executives are recognizing the change and see the business opportunity on the horizon. But they would only have to look back to the summers of ’74 and ’75  in Queens County, New York to have seen the future.

While the New York Yankees and New York Mets were each playing mediocre baseball, teetering around .500, fans at Shea Stadium were treated to games nearly every night as the Yankees were relocated across the East River when The City of New York renovated Yankee Stadium for two seasons. The Mets’ roster featured Cy Young award winner Tom Seaver, who went 22-9 in ’75 when his club finished 82-80 and 10 games back of the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Yanks’ roster included the core of eventual ’77 and ’78 World Series championship teams. Yet the opportunity for a baseball fan that summer was simply the ease of getting great seats at prices that were next to nothing, especially for the displaced Bronx Bombers.

It was the perfect summer for high school buddies to head out to Shea, grab box seats for $5 apiece and play a game we simply called, “Pass the Hat.” We knew it was probably illegal but a harmless form of wagering.
Little did we know, it was an early form of fantasy baseball that kept us fully engaged each and every at bat.

The rules were simple. The game worked best when you had at least four participants, great when you had six or eight. To start, someone would take off their baseball cap and everybody would “ante up” a buck by tossing it into the cap. Batter up and the person holding the hat was eligible to collect the loot if a player got a hit when you were holding it. If the batter made out, you were obligated to toss in another $1 buck and pass the hat to your buddy seated next to you. If a player walked, you passed the hat free of charge, so, in our game, a walk was not as good as a hit. One caveat was the luck of holding the hat when a home run was hit. In that case, not only did you collect the money in the hat, but everyone participating was required to toss another dollar at the lucky winner, and then ante up again before the next batter.

As the years went by, we entertained ourselves with some other variations of our game, including an end-of-inning wonderkind called, “Grass-Mound-or-Other,” which required you to guess where the ball would end up after an inning ending out. After the final out, say a fly ball to left field, we eagerly watched the left fielder jogging towards his dugout to see if he would roll the ball to the pitchers mound and whether it would rest on the dirt hill (3-1 odds) or just off the edge and on the infield grass (even money). If the ball were tossed to a fan in the stands or carried into the dugout, all bets were off unless you had previously designated “other” which would get even money. There were many a times we had to stand on our infield box seats to get the proper angle on a ball tossed over the mound and nearly out-of-sight. It was glorious way to pass the time and highly intriguing, with the proof always shown through the fact neighboring fans would want to “get into” the game.

Surely there are hundreds of other New Yorkers with similar stories and different variations of the games they played at the ball field, and tons of examples of how soccer fans at Arsenal or dozens of other European Premier League clubs can wager on the first goal, the next goal or some other occurrence whether it involved the outcome of the game or just the next statistical transaction.

To date in the North American sports world, no league or venue has been permitted to get into the action because of federal laws. The recent influx of daily fantasy sports (DFS) is the first hint of gaming activity on an “official” basis, as Major League Baseball, via its digital media arm, MLB Advanced Media, has partnered with Draft Kings on an official sponsorship package.

That package consists mostly of touting their “experiential” offerings for tickets and other game enhancements or hospitality and trips.

The NBA partnered with Fan Duel, taking an equity position. However, the DFS offerings, to date, have only been salary cap-style games. The site infrastructures of either Fan Duel or Draft Kings have not been altered to allow in-game adjustments to line-ups or other such variations, such as predicting fantasy stats in an “At Bat” or single inning.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has boldly stated his viewpoint to potentially legalize sports gambling and take it away from the off-shore web sites or back-room bookies and into the open. His counterparts in charge of other major sports leagues have not been so forthcoming, especially the NFL and MLB which both seem to be burying their heads in the sand while Silver steps up, communicating transparently by way of his breath-of-fresh-air op-ed piece written in The New York Times last November 13th. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/opinion/nba-commissioner-adam-silver-legalize-sports-betting.html?_r=0

Wrote Silver in the NYT, “Betting on professional sports is currently illegal in most of the United States outside of Nevada. I believe we need a different approach,” noting the massive amounts of money wagered through “illicit bookmaking operations” or “shady offshore websites,” as he noted the popularity of sports gambling in the international world that is so much a part of the NBA’s global business plans.

In closing, Silver wrote under his by-line, “I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated.”

But what wasn’t a major statement in Silver’s op-ed or yet recognized by the powers-that-be in any of the North American major sports, is the fact more lenient federal and state laws on gaming and fantasy sports will bring about more engagement with the fans.

“It can keep people much more engaged at so many different points in a game,” said Joe Favorito, the Director of Industry Relations and a faculty member at Columbia University’s sports management program. “If a baseball game score is one-sided, you might stay for the entire game,” he said while noting the payoffs for “In-game” wagering/entertainment might be a coupon for a free hot dog in the eighth inning or a promotion to get more 20-somethings to attend a different game, later in the season.

So while the wager doesn’t have to be about money, the bottom line for a sports team, league or venue should now be to use newfound, hand-held “app-crazy” technology and obvious widespread acceptance of gaming, to offer-up another form of in-game entertainment and keep the fans happy. Traditionalists might scoff at the idea, but they don’t have to play, just the way some sports fans go out to the races just to see the horses run or intelligent readers buy Playboy for the articles.

Personally, I’d like to see a much more transparent viewpoint come from the Park Avenue hallways of both Major League Baseball and the National Football League, as those two sports have the most to gain. But, until then, I’ll head out to Yankee Stadium or the new Shea (they call it CitiField), with my old buddies, my baseball cap and $20 or $30 in singles.

 

The Truth: A 1985 NBA Draft Lottery Flashback

By TERRY LYONS – follow on Twitter @TerryLyons

NEW YORK – NBA conspiracy theorists everywhere, I’m here to tell you the absolute truth about the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery. Yes, I was there 30 years ago as one of about a dozen people charged with running the event on behalf of the teams of the National Basketball Association.

Yes, we the soldiers at the NBA league office worked diligently on behalf of the teams.  We reported to NBA Commissioner David Stern and we toiled for thousands and thousands of long hours and travelled many miles to represent the NBA and its players to fans and businesses around the world. As with most human beings given a good job with definite goals and responsibilities, we took those jobs very seriously and did our very best on behalf of all the NBA. At times, the job descriptions called for us to enforce the rules our employers had signed into the league’s constitution and by-laws or the NBA rule book. Those were the times that were often most challenging because so many of our employers liked to try and bend the rules to best fit their own small world, their own situation, their own roster or their own rather short-term future. Not surprisingly, some of those people – while willing to hold their hands on a bible – swore they’d never toss a game. Instead, they camouflaged their so-called “tanking” by assembling rosters that would fail team chemistry 101 at any college in the land.


It is important to read between the lines of the words I’m writing because, at no time, do I believe the coaches and players walk out to the court with losing a game as a goal. In fact, I believe the coaches and players of the NBA and pro sports, in general, are the most competitive beings in the universe, right up there with thoroughbred race horses.  In my years at the NBA, players like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Kobe Bryant, and old-schoolers like Bill Russell, Jerry West and Rod Thorn taught me what the words “mental toughness” meant and how it related to competitiveness and winning games. On the flip side, full team rosters and starting lineups without cohesiveness are destined to fail, no matter how mentally tough or competitive any one player might be.


PROBABILITIES

The NBA teams entered in the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery are as follows: The first three picks in the draft will be determined by the lottery and the remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions 4 through 14 in inverse order of their consolidated standings at the end of the regular season.

Team
Record
Chances
1st Pick
2nd Pick
3rd Pick
Minnesota
16-66
250
25.00%
21.51%
17.77%
New York
17-65
199
19.90%
18.81%
17.12%
Philadelphia
18-64
156
15.60%
15.74%
15.59%
L.A. Lakers
21-61
119
11.90%
12.60%
13.30%
Orlando
25-57
88
8.80%
9.66%
10.68%
Sacramento
29-53
63
6.30%
7.10%
8.12%
Denver
30-52
43
4.30%
4.94%
5.79%
Detroit
32-50
28
2.80%
3.26%
3.89%
Charlotte
33-49
17
1.70%
2.0%
2.41%
Miami
37-45
11
1.10%
1.30%
1.58%
Indiana
38-44
8
0.80%
0.95%
1.15%
Utah
38-44
7
0.70%
0.83%
1.01%
Phoenix
39-43
6
0.60%
0.71%
0.87%
OK City
45-37
5
0.50%
0.59%
0.73%

 

With that in mind, I give you the lead-up to the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery and, for those not aware of the situation, I’ll provide some background: In 1983 and 1984, the Houston Rockets were amongst the least cohesive and victory challenged teams in the NBA. Under NBA rules in ’83, the Rockets and the Indiana Pacers, as the worst teams in the Western and Eastern conferences of the NBA, participated in a “coin-flip” to determine the first pick of the annual NBA Draft, even though both Chicago and Cleveland had lost more games than Houston that season. The coin-flip was the first legislation to disincentivize teams from losing games on purpose in order to gain a better position in the annual draft and it drew the line of demarkation by conference. Through sheer luck of a “50-50” chance coin-flip, or the luck brought on after Manhattan restauranteur Jimmy Weston bestowed a clock shaped like a map of Ireland upon the Rockets’ staff contingent headed up by the great PR man, Jim Foley, the Rockets won the flip and the right to draft 7-foot-4 college player of the year Ralph Sampson while Indiana was left to select Steve Stipanovich with the second pick of the ’83 NBA Draft.


A year later, a slightly better Rockets team with Sampson and a dysfunctional roster around him were back in the West cellar. This time, with the great Hakeem Olajuwon as the prize, straight out of the University of Houston, none-the-less, the Rockets’ contingent was back at Jimmy Weston’s and the lucky Irish clock was removed from its place on the wall to accompany the Rockets’ group when they ventured to the 15th floor of Olympic Tower to call “heads or tails.” Team owner Charlie Thomas’ daughter, Tracy, had the guts to make the call and only as luck would have it, the coin came up heads and the crew headed back to Houston with the rights to “Dream” tucked into their briefcases. It was an unbelievable thing to witness and, although I was and remain extremely good friends with Foley to this day, I remember feeling quite sorry for Larry Weinberg and the Portland people that May day.


The times moved on and the league quickly adopted its lottery system to be instituted before the 1984-85 season when yet another prized collegian would be the No. 1 choice of the draft, that being Patrick Ewing of Georgetown.


The setting was the Starlight Roof on the 18th floor of the Waldorf-Astoria and the challenge of the event was the fact the NBA and the folks who televised “At the Half” for CBS Sports were contractually bound to wait until the wee hours of the morning of June 18, 1985 to load-in, then build-out the set and properly place cameras and equipment. While the conspiracy theorists, still somewhat ignoring the unbelievable luck incurred by the Rockets, conjured up the ridiculous vision of a “freeze-dried” envelope, the truth of the matter was that the people involved were deeply focused on the physical aspects of installing the set, cabling television cameras up 18 floors and getting a clear broadcast signal from trucks parked on the Eastside of Manhattan to the CBS Broadcast Center of the Westside of the city.


While some people might remember the “lucky horse shoe” from the great Canadien-born pacer “On the Road Again,” brandished by Knicks GM Dave DeBusschere when he took to his spot on the set, I remember flying cross country on a Red-Eye after Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals to join my colleagues in New York to conduct the very first NBA Lottery. I remember watching the calmness of Rick Welts, the head of our group, as he orchestrated the event plans. Rick, by the way, hails from Seattle where he started his career in sports as a ballboy for the Sonics, and he is now running the Golden State Warriors franchise. I remember watching Ed Desser planning the television aspects with set-designer Hugh Rasky and CBS Sports producers, like Bob Mansbach. Ed, by the way, hails from Los Angeles and had worked for the LA Lakers before joining the NBA staff as Director of Broadcasting. I remember assisting the great Brian McIntyre as we credentialed an ungodly number of interested media types from all corners of the USA. McIntyre ran the NBA media operation, just as he runs his life and family, with great honest, dignity and trust. Brian, by the way, hails from the great city of Chicago and cut his teeth in pro sports selling game programs for the Bulls and Black Hawks before the Bulls hierarchy was smart enough to hire him full-time in their small front office.


There were a number of others, all equally dedicated to the job at hand. Some of them grew up in New York but others, like Rob Levine, grew up as a Celtics and Red Sox fans in Sharon, Mass while still others hailed from Oakland, Denver or San Diego. So, while critics of the league office thought there might be a New York bias, the truth was quite the opposite, as the staff took on a decidedly nationalistic demographic as Stern tapped the shoulders of talented workers from different places to help him polish the gem that was the NBA in the early ‘80s. At the time, the NBA was a gem tarnished by years of mismanagement or non-managment, really, but, it was ready to burst-on to the international sports scene in ways never imagined by anyone, once polished and properly positioned to a legion of new fans.



The focus on the day of the 1985 NBA Lottery was actually so very basic, it took on more of a cry of hope to “not screw it up” rather than a form of any planning for after-the-fact. Yes, there were plenty of rehearsals, usually utilizing the team logo cards which were printed to be placed on the respective team table-tops at the draft, staged those years at The Felt Forum, adjacent to Madison Square Garden. The late Jack Joyce, a retired FBI agent who was a confidant of the late Larry O’Brien was in charge of the NBA’s security department and he was charged with spinning the drum on the lottery set, as his assistant, a NYC detective, Horace Balmer, kept a watchful eye on the process.

Levine, who was one of Welts’ top aides, made the suggestion to secure each envelope with a sticky, gold seal he purchased at a local stationary store on Madison Avenue which gave the look of a classy invitation to the otherwise plain envelopes. Levine was the last person to touch the envelopes before they made their way to the stage for all to see Joyce, Mr. Jack Wagner and David Stern conduct the actual event in front of the bright lights. There was no refrigerator. There was no dry ice. There were no bent envelopes or anything else that would have made any of us lose the very high level of credibility we all treasure and value to this day.  And, as Stern has noted on occasion of interrogation from inquiring minds, we were not in the practice of committing a punishable felony of fraud anywhere or anytime, never mind in front of television cameras for all the world to see as we represented the league and worked so hard to enforce its rules and procedures – on and off the court.

Looking back after all the years, I was fortunate enough to witness unbelievable acts of athleticism and, literally hundreds of hotly-contested, high-pressure feats, such as Julius “Dr. J” making his incredible reverse, under-the-basket and off-the-backboard lay-up in the 1980 NBA Finals against the LA Lakers, Michael Jordan’s “spectacular move” driving to the hoop a few years later against those same Lakers. I saw Magic Johnson whipping crisp passes to James Worthy or lobbing them into Kareem Abdul-Jabbar who would sink his patented sky-hook. I even watched Vince Carter jumping over Frederic Weis at the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games but, to this day, there were two episodes that really stood out and I truly could not believe that I witnessed during my NBA career.

One was the first time the “Dream Team” took the court at the Basketball Tournament of the Americas and the other was the palpable tension that built up about “two envelopes” into that ’85 Draft Lottery. No one could’ve properly planned or really anticipated the magnitude of either one of those moments in time.  They were just truly incredible moments in sports history.

Now, after 30 years, I have mixed feelings about all that’s been stated about the ’85 event. My reactions to the conspiracy theorists were, in fact, much like Stern’s. My first thoughts were just amazement at their concept and imaginations and an honest hope that someone with that mindset is on the right side of the law. Then, some anger and resentment that so many – more informed people – would call our decency and credibility into question. Then, a return to amusement at the continued sillyness and ridiculousness of the length new media would actually go to continue such a stupid and wrong myth. And, then, a return to anger at the sheer longevity of the accusations. I try not to take it personally, but, deep down it still hurts.

Overall, I was happy to see the league take action steps over the years to instill more sense of fairness for the lottery teams. In 1986, the competition committee influenced the league’s Board of Governors to make adjustments to the system and the NBA decided the lottery would determine the order of selection for the first three picks only. The remaining non-playoff teams would select in inverse order of their regular-season records. Therefore, the team with the worst record would be assured of picking no worse than fourth, the team with the second-worst record no worse than fifth and so on. In 1993, the NBA board approved a modification of the system effective with the 1994 lottery, to again increase the chances of the teams with the worst won-loss records to gain one of the top three picks in the draft while decreasing the chances of the teams with the best records. The new system increased the chances of the team with the worst record drawing the first pick from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while obviously decreasing the chances of the team with the best record amongst lottery teams. In ’95, the NBA adjusted the lottery with the addition of the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies (now Memphis) franchises and in 2004 the system was adjusted to make room for the return of Charlotte to the NBA and the probabilities set to what they are this week when the NBA stages the lottery in New York City, once again.

All of those adjustments in the rules were intended to balance fairness in the process to re-stock teams in desperate need of talent upgrades against the improper “tanking” of games by the front office personnel of teams seeking to position their franchises for an upcoming draft. To this day, I’m not sure there is a solution that can make it a perfect science, but I do applaud the NBA for consistently tweaking the system over the years and for focusing on the issues while seeking new and possibly better mechanisms to fairly disperse the never-ending talent pool entering the league.

American Pharoah Top Dog in Preakness Horse Race

By Frank Scandale @FScandale @TheDailyPayoff

If the Road to the Triple Crown is paved with obstacles, those betting on favorite American Pharoah don’t see them as of the second leg of the quest.

The winner of the Kentucky Derby is sitting as the solid favorite today, with odds ranging from 4-5 today to 10-13, for instance, despite his rail position. His Derby runner-up pals are sitting just behind him with various bookmakers and racing columnists.
Racing observers and odds make

Yet, not everyone is going with the prevailing thinking based on the Derby’s outcome. More on that later.

Racing observers and odds makers alike are fairly consistent in their choices of Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund in some order of Win, Place and Show.

“I think the top three Derby horses repeat in the Preakness,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operation at Westgate Casino in Las Vegas. “The order of finish might be different.”
VegasInsider.com lists Bob Baffert’s two colts, American Pharoah and Dortmund at 4-5 and 7-2, respectively. While Firing Line is listed at 4-1. http://www.vegasinsider.com/horse-racing/odds/preakness/
It has Diving Rod the next closest at 12-1.
OddsShark puts Pharoah at 10-13, Dortmund and Firing Line both at 17-4. http://www.oddsshark.com/horse-racing/preakness-stakes-odds

New York Times writers Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert also produced their picks and analysis of the race with Drape bucking the prevailing thinking by picking Firing Line, and Hoppert going with Dortmund http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/sports/handicapping-preakness-stakes.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid%3D=tw-nytsports&_r=0

Then there is Joe Kristufek. He’s seeing it a little differently.

One of America’s Best Racing ambassadors and the racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Kristufek is picking Divining  Rod to break into the top three and even threaten for the win.

“As far as loooking at it from the perception of the Derby, it seems obvious those horses could run 1-2-3 again,” Kristufek admitted. “But I’m interested in Divining Rod. That horse has a tremendous pedigree.”

He said Divining Rod’s mother is Precious Kitten, who has earned $2 million, and his uncle is Kitten Joy, one of the best sires ever.

“The family lineage all around on Divining Rod is impressive,” he said. “Being the contrarian, and looking for value potential…you can look at this race two ways. Lots of fans want American Pharoah to win and compete for the Triple Crown. Or you can look at it from a wagering perspective and look for value.

“And I think this horse is going to run a huge race,” he said.

Kristufek also noted that Diving Rod has had five weeks off, unlike most others who have had just two weeks off. He’s also in the 7th post positon of a possible eight that plays to his natural speed that will keep him close with little chance for interference on the outside.

He said the morning line was 12-1 on Diving Rod, but said you might get 8-1, which would be fair.

“He’s going to have to take another big step forward in the Preakness,’ Kristufek said.

The race, held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, MD, is shorter than the Derby, so some think Dortmund has a better chance this time of upsetting American Pharoah.

Post time is 6:18 ET and the race can be seen on NBC.

thedailypayoff

THE DP INTERVIEW: Joey Levy, Draftpot, founder & CEO

THE DAILY PAYOFF sat down with Joey Levy CEO & Founder of Draftpot, an innovative daily fantasy platform that offers restricitonless gaming, for a conversation on student entrepreneurs, big data, and of course how Draftpot’s unique approach is disrupting the fantasy space.  You can find Levy on twitter @Draftpot where he welcomes interactions

*****************

The Daily Payoff [TDP]: You’re getting a lot of attention – and its well deserved – you have a proprietary game mode without salary cap restrictions.

Joey Levy [JL]: Yes for sure, but we do have a traditional GM mode which caters to people who want the strategy involved with the salary cap – but our most popular setting is fan mode which does not have restrictions. This allows us to tap into wider demographics and acquire users with little to no fantasy experience and the feedback has been tremendously positive.

TDP: How can we sign up?

JL: The site is https://Draftpot.com the great thing is that you can play instantly without cumbersome signups and logins. We don’t want any restriction from our users being able to enjoy Draftpot. Of course we welcome registrations but at your convenience.

TDP: Did Draftpot come from pure innovation or necessity? A bit of both?

JL: I think its been a combination, I knew there was a need for an alternative platform to offer restriction-free games. I started doing more research into the nature of DFS. I was always a player but when I heavily got into the business I realized how big of an opportunity it could be. It really is the instant gratification of the games that drive the revenue. The space is in its infancy but nevertheless moving. The industry provided its viability but at the same time was early enough to develop a product to differentiate itself. That’s where Draftpot fills the gap.

TDP: data is very closely linked to the fantasy game. Are you working with any data providers or analytics companies?

JL: We work with Sportsdata LLC (subsidiary of Sports Radar). They provide the API calls for all the sports we’re involved in. That’s how we get the data. As far as the web development itself – that’s done in house by the cofounders

TDP: Tell us about the endeavor – founding the company, developing the platform, raising capital – all as a Columbia student.

JL: Its been a challenge dealing with classes while trying to build a business., especially one that requires so much time and effort. That being said we have been able to manage our classes, develop the website, administer it, and improve it constantly. My partner (fellow Columbia University student) directly oversees the web development. We currently have over 2,000 users and have amassed 20K in entry fees. My job is to continue that trajectory. We are constantly coming up with new and innovative ways to market this

TDP: So Draftpot was founded by a fantasy player/college student the result filled a void and introduced fantasy sports to a much larger demographic — given this perspective any other “first of its kind” claims that Draftpot can make?

JL: Sure thing. We have the first user driven chat area where you can talk trash during competitions. This is an element of the game that was taking place offline for years but Draftpot allows that user interaction online. If you go to Fanduel or Draftkings or any other site when you are tracking your contests in real time it really just a list of whose participating and the order – while we provide that information because its necessary – we also have a chat box on that same page where you communicate with those same participants. It can get quite fun – we’ve had tournaments where there has been over 600 people all interacting and talking smack.

TDP: What sports do you currently offer and what’s next?

JL: Of course we offer the major domestic leagues. We will be adding college football and college basketball when those seasons start. We will have PGA up before the US Open, MMA is coming very soon, we are also exploring adding Esports to our platform – we would be the first site to offer both traditional and Esports.

TDP: Any advice for the student entrepreneur?

JL: Defiantly going to require full time commitment. To do it right you can’t do it on the side. To be successfully your venture simply has to be full time. Pursue what you want to pursue but understand what you are getting into and commit accordingly.

TDP: Okay, time to plug Draftpot

JL:We always want more users, so please go to https://Draftpot.com to sign up for an account with promo code “TheDailyPayoff” and get a free $4 coupon to start. To any interested investors: we are raising capital and are wrapping up our seed round now, for more information please reach out to me Joey@draftpot.com

NASCAR Officially Along For The Pay Fantasy Ride

NASCAR Officially Along For The Pay Fantasy Ride

There have been fantasy games set up around NASCAR for years with little to no success. The thought was always that with such passionate and engaged fans, a regular schedule and tons of data that the sport was a natural fit for fantasy. However individual sports were slow to gain traction in traditional fantasy, but all that has changed since the pay model has come into vogue.

Golf officials see pay fantasy as a way to engage a younger audience, and while tennis officials still worry about “gambling” and the fact that their game is more global, where fantasy has not yet caught on, there remains more interest there as well. Now it looks like NASCAR is in whole hog, announcing an official deal with DraftKings on Thursday.

Through the three-year agreement, DraftKings will have an exclusive license to develop NASCAR-branded games across the daily fantasy sports category. According to the release, DraftKings will have access to a direct data feed from NASCAR Digital Media that contains real-time statistics which will create all kinds of gaming opportunities for fans watching live on any device, and perhaps most importantly, at the track.

“Pursuing ways to connect with our fans on a daily basis while enhancing their viewing experience has been paramount to NASCAR, and fantasy sports is a core tenet of that strategy,” said Steve Phelps, NASCAR executive vice president and chief marketing officer in a release. “We are committed to growing our fan base, increasing engagement and diversifying our audience and partnering with DraftKings will strongly support all of these efforts.”

It will work this way. In each game, participants are assigned a fixed salary cap they can use to draft their entire roster, comprised of five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers. Scoring categories in DraftKings NASCAR daily fantasy sports games will include finishing position, fastest laps, laps led, position differential and passing differential. NASCAR games on DraftKings will provide fans the opportunity to win one-of-a-kind NASCAR prizes and VIP experiences. DraftKings will offer two different types of NASCAR-themed games – a free game for casual players and paid games for avid followers of the sport.

The success of pay fantasy in NASCAR will not be overnight, as like every sport adapting to the culture will be key. There is no certain way to know how much illegal gambling goes on in and around races, although casual bets are known to take place around every track. What is certain is that NASCAR has a very engaged fan base which is very brand loyal, and if that translates into pay fantasy, DraftKings may be racing towards the checkered flag in yet another sport.

Deflategate Suspension Shifts Odds on Patriots’ Super Bowl Chances

By Frank Scandale @Fscandale @TheDailyPayoff
Las Vegas odds makers say the four-game suspension meted out to Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady triggered adjustments in their outlook on the Super Bowl champs repeating, but all bets are off on final lines until an appeal is heard.
For those who put the season opener against Pittsburgh back on the board, their point spread against Pittsburgh also got much tighter.
All of this might have been expected given untested, back-up quarterback Jimmy Garappolo is the likely on-deck replacement. But what is still uncertain for odds makers is how many games ultimately Brady will be suspended on appeal, which was filed by Brady Thursday and agreed to be heard personally by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

That decision by Goodell is in itself a controversy, as the players’ union had urged the commission to appoint a neutral party.

All this drama is being played out in public while sports books such as Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, are busy adjusting lines and watching this like a Shakespearean play. Avello said after the news came out on the lengthy suspension, he made adjustments to who wins Super Bowl, dropping the odds for the Patriots from 7-1 to 9-1.

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“I was giving the odds at 5-2 to win the AFC conference and now it’s 4-1,” Avello added. “The reason is if they miss him for four games, the other teams could get possible jumps. Miami, Jets, Buffalo all have been lowered a bit…if it is two games, I’ll back off a little bit, maybe go to 8-1.”
The opening game is Pittsburgh and without Brady Avello says its a pick ’em game. The second game at Buffalo will be “difficult.” Jacksonville is up next and at home and he gives the Pats a win there, but the fourth game (after the bye week) is a tough game with Dallas.
“They could be 2-2 after four games if he’s not around, Avello said. “The Super Bowl champs get a tougher schedule.”
He also believes the Pats will not look for another quarterback.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Vaccaro, head of South Point Casino’s Race and Sports Marketing division, said the point spread for the Patriots-Steelers opener dropped to 1.5 from six points once the suspension was announced.
“Brady can move a game about six points. But with lots of time to prepare, and you adjust for the Superbowl win, we move it up a tick, Vaccaro said. “As for the rest of the division…the Jets, Bills and Miami, they are all about even. So now if you put the four games without Brady, the division up for grabs. We are just waiting an seeing how many games this suspension will be.”

Jimmy Vaccaro

Jimmy Vaccaro

Bookmakers in general had the Patriots to win 10.5 games prior to the suspension but now lowered to 10 games on the over/under.
”You have to remember that Tom Brady is the top quarterback in the league, but you can’t throw away the rest of the team. It is still a Superbowl winning team.”

Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at Westgate Las Vegas Resort and Casino, said originally there was not much of an adjustment planned as nothing in the investigation suggested a four-game suspension was likely.

Jay Kornegay

Jay Kornegay

“We were thinking a fine and a one-game suspension,” said Kornegay, a lifelong Broncos fan and Colorado self-professed “homer.” “And a one-game suspension would make minor adjustments.”
Once The Wells report came out, Kornegay took the opening game against the Steelers off the board, where the Pats had been a six-point favorite.
“Once they announced four games, it was chaos for day and we had to make adjustments,” he said.
Additional fallout included raising the Super Bowl champs’ odds for a repeat to 8-1 from 7-1 after the suspension was announced. They also simultaneously changed the Denver Broncos line to 12-1 from 14-1 on the news.
The odds of the Pats winning the AFC conference was raised to 7-2 from 3-1, as well.
Oddsmakers explained the reason for the relatively minor adjustments was because they knew Brady would appeal and there’s a good chance the suspension would be reduced.

“These numbers are based on a two-game reduction already factored into this line,” Kornegay said, adding the line would be adjusted again if the four games are upheld.
Though initially Westgate took the Patriots-Steelers game off the board, it is now back on with the Patriots a two-point favorite. Why?
“They’ve done this before with Matt Cassel (2008 season when Brady got injured in the opener and was out all season) and won about 10 or 11 games (11 actually). They’ll be at home and they’ll be a lot of emotion there.”
He also thinks Coach Bill Belichick will come out blazing with something to prove.

Now, let’s see what the line is on that bet.

 

Timing Is Everything; Brands Berra And Brady Linked Together

Timing Is Everything; Brands Berra And Brady Linked Together

by Joe Favorito @JoeFav

There is a tinge of irony that on the day Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were dealing with the heavy-handed ruling by the NFL, politicians on New Jersey were circulating a petition to have Yogi Berra recognized for The Presidential Medal of Freedom. While many opined about the issue of the Brady brand for the long term (there won’t be much damage if any), the Berra brand, on the Hall of Famer’s 90th birthday, is one to be cherished, and not just for his prolific baseball career. There are very few individuals in the New Jersey lore transcends the era in which they made their mark. Springsteen, Lombardi, Senator Bill Bradley, President Woodrow Wilson, Sinatra would fit the mold. And then there is Yogi.

Yogi Berra’s legacy is as vibrant today as it was when the St.Louis native first arrived in the area to take the first steps as a Hall of Fame catcher with the New York Yankees. The difference today is that Berra legacy is not just about sports or his Italian American heritage or even his larger than life presence in and around Montclair, New Jersey. It is about pride, consistency, leadership and education, a legacy which can now be told year-round to an even larger audience with the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center, hard by the first base line of Yogi Berra Stadium on the campus of Montclair State University.
The Center underwent a $3.2 million renovation in 2011, and houses plenty of things Yogi, and features new video displays and other tidbits to enhance the experience, as well as the stadium shaped auditorium, which hosts more programs dedicated not just to baseball, but to learning experiences for all ages, with programs that focus on sportsmanship and social justice, two traits Berra has always held in high regard on and off the diamond.

But how can Berra’s legacy, built on malapropisms and baseball, withstand such a test of time? The key comes from the man himself, someone who was able to balance a successful business career in the offseason with a legendary career on the field. A man who stood by his principals and rarely bent the rules, and went on to take those same ideals to the front office, leading both the Mets and Yankees to the World Series.

In a time where athletes were not really known for thinking long-term for business, the Yogi brand was seen on Yoo-hoo and Wiffle Balls, even a spot withWiffle Balls, in commercials and card shows, and was never associated with anything that was controversial in nature. It is a brand that stands for loyalty and family, and as the years go on, has incorporated stronger social values and education into the plan as well. All of those factors speak very clearly in a challenged society, and have made the museum and learning center so much more than the precious artifacts it has and the events it holds. It speaks to a larger societal issue of positive values and dedication to community, which is really why the Yogi brand has continued so long. Yes it is about a quirky former ballplayer and the stories he can still tell so well. But more importantly it stands for quality in a world where sometimes quantity is placed on a higher level and the quick win is better than long term success.

That is not to say that leadership in athletics or entertainment is fully compromised today. A legion of leaders both in and away from sport can point to what Berra built as a standard for what they have tied themselves to today, even with all that goes on and the microscope anyone of note is under today. As far as Brady goes, his reputation for the long term will also survive and thrive in all likelihood. However for a lasting brand that has transcended time largely unscathed, one could look to the Yankee legend as a standard-bearer, and one who is deserving of any honor, event from POTUS, more now than ever.

– See more at: http://joefavorito.com/2015/05/12/timing-is-everything-brands-berra-and-brady-linked-together/#sthash.rM2BweM1.dpuf

DraftKings Finds Another Partner With A Million Dollars At Stake

By @TheDailyPayoff

You have to give it to DraftKings for looking high and low to find not just the bigger partnerships, but the most creative niche ones to draw attention in their Mano a Mano battle with Fan Duel as leaders in daily pay sports fantasy.

It’s latest partnership came Tuesday, when DK joined forces with another “disruptor” in sports, the Boston-based, The Basketball Tournament (TBT), a single-elimination, five-on-five, winner-take-all, open-application tournament.

The pair joined forces to come up with a promotional partnership for their 2015 event, which runs in July and August on ESPN (another DraftKings partner by the way). One of the 96 teams will get some elite status as being the “official” DK entry in the field.

Here’s how it works according to the press release: In order to win the DraftKings sponsorship, teams and their fans will compete in a DraftKings daily fantasy game centered on the NBA Conference Finals. Whichever fan or TBT participant wins the contest will also win a premium experience for himself or herself, a guest, and each member of his or her team.

The DraftKings sponsorship package includes travel to a region of the team’s choice, DraftKings-sponsored uniforms, and an apparel package from other official TBT providers, including Rock ‘Em Socks and iSlides. The uniform sponsorship represents a first for DraftKings and a first for TBT as well.

The interesting aspect of the partnership is its ties to the play in the NBA Conference Finals. This way a wide number of the participants ( 96 teams in the field when it is unveiled)  makes for a solid growth pattern for a sport – hoops – that is not as much in the DK sweet spot as say baseball or the NFL. It also gives DK visibility in July when fans might be away from pay fantasy and are getting ready to gear up for NFL, which remains the big money area for pay fantasy.

“Our business is built around the passion of sports fans. The idea that anyone can build and be part of a championship team in The Basketball Tournament aligns perfectly with our DFS offering,” said Jeremy Elbaum, Vice President of Business Development at DraftKings in the release. “At DraftKings, any given day someone could skillfully create the perfect line-up and become a millionaire.”

In 2015, The Basketball Tournament will have 96 teams playing for a winner-take-all prize of $1 million. Opening rounds begin July 10-12 at regional sites in Los Angeles and Atlanta and continue July 17-19 in Chicago and Philadelphia with the winners playing down to an August 2 final in New York. ESPN’s platforms will carry a bulk of the early round games, with the semi-finals and finals airing live on ESPN as previously reported.

The question looms will this type of promotion change the game for Draft Kings? No. However like some of their other niche partnerships they are showing creativity and flexibility that brings casual sports fans to their platform and helps increase brand loyalty overall. Every time they touch a fan in a sport they are interested, they have a chance at conversion and for sure anyone interested in TBT is a core hoops fan or participant. It is low cost, with a chance at solid impact for DraftKings, and a nice talking point for an event looking to find its footing, a solid bet on a partnership for all involved.

More Probable Than Not Observations on Deflategate and Other Sports Trends

By Terry Lyons @terrylyons @TheDailyPayoff

After four months of speculation, accusation and humiliation, the National Football League via an independent investigation came down from their Park Avenue mountaintop to decry, in a 243-page report, “that it is more probable than not” that New England Patriots QB Tom Brady and two locker room attendant/ball boys were involved and aware of circumstances involving the improper deflation of footballs used in this year’s AFC Championship football game.

With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to examine a few other occurrences that might be “more probable than not.”

First, regarding the football game in question: Because of the 45-7 score in favor of the Patriots, it is more probable than not that the slightly deflated footballs utilized by the Patriots had no bearing on the outcome of the game. However, it is more probable than not that they helped inflate the number of fantasy points accrued by RB LaGarrette Blount.

With the report conducted by Ted Wells and a team of lawyers from Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton and Garrison coming down and the NFL soon to dole-out punishment, it is more probable than not that back-up QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting when the NFL season kicks off with the Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game on September 10th.

Leading up to that date, it is more probable than not that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will no longer be quoting Mona Lisa Vito.

Away from football, it is more probable than not that basketball fans raised their eyebrows when Madison Square Garden boss Jim Dolan hired Isiah Thomas to be the president and co-owner of the New York Liberty. It is also more probable than not that Bill Cosby will not be a WNBA owner.

In boxing, it is more probable than not that a few million fans who purchased the Mayweather-Paquiao pay-per-view for $99 will be stupid enough to do it again if there is a rematch.

In hockey, it is more probable than not that viewers will change the channel from a playoff hockey game unless Emmy Award winning play-by-play man Doc Emrick is calling the game.
http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2014/05/listen_amazing_doc_emrick_soundboard_lets_you_hear_all_of_legendary_nhl_announcers_quirky_phrases.html

It is also more probable than not that I would never look to CNBC or USA Network for a Stanley Cup playoff hockey game.

Along those lines, for some reason, I have tabbed TruTV as a favorite on my remote, but I haven’t watched a minute of TruTV other than NCAA March Madness.

It is more probable than not that most of the NBA’s postseason awards will leak to the media before they are officially announced by the league. Similarly, it is more probable than not that the NBA Players Association will screw-up their own version of postseason awards.

It is more probable than not that the NCAA will intervene and put a stop to open, free transfers of graduate students. And, it is more probable than not the NCAA will not care when there is significant backlash from the players, err, student-athletes.

It is more probable than not that, after David Letterman and Jon Stewart retire, the funniest late night tv act will be the NBA on TNT’s Ernie, Shaq, Kenny and Charles.

It is more probable than not that the NBA will ignore the problem of “Hack-A-DeAndre Jordan” and just let the trend play out.

It is more probable than not that NBA reporters will not bring up what might be in James Harden’s beard.

It is more probable than not that Tim Duncan will be playing next April 25th, on his 40th birthday.

Heading into The Players Championship, the fifth major so-to-say, it is more probable than not that Tiger Woods will not catch Jack Nicklaus or … Wilt Chamberlain.

It is more probable than not that LA Clippers reserve power forward Big Baby Davis will never be mistaken for the Royal baby.

And now for some serious predictions:

It is more probable than not that American Pharoah will not win the Triple Crown, but I like his chances.

It is more probable than not that the Stanley Cup Finals will involve teams that no one cares about.

It is more probable than not that Golden State will win the NBA championship, and I like their chances even more than American Pharoah’s.

And lastly, it is more probable than not that there are already too many candidates for the 2016 Presidential election.