The 2019-20 NFL season comes to an end on Sunday with Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Barely a week later, Major League Baseball pitchers and catchers start reporting to spring training camps in Florida and Arizona. The first exhibition games are February 22 and the regular season starts on Thursday, March 26 with all 30 teams in action on Opening Day for the first time in decades.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
How important is an MLB manager to his team’s success? The biggest news in MLB of late has been three managers being fired/stepping down in the Houston Astros’ A.J. Hinch, Boston Red Sox’s Alex Cora and New York Mets’ Carlos Beltran. All were involved in one form or another in the sign-stealing scandal with Houston and Boston that’s leaving a black eye on the sport. and probably isn’t over yet.
Oddsmakers only slightly punished those three teams in losing their managers even though Hinch led the Astros to a pair of World Series appearances over the past three seasons with one title, and Cora led Boston to a franchise-record 108 wins and a championship in 2018. Beltran was a first-year manager with the Mets.
For Super Bowl LIII, around $325 million was wagered legally in the U.S.. According to many accounts, over $6 billion in bets were seen between the legal and the illegal markets, although it’s difficult to know exactly how much would have been bet illegally. With more states now offering legalized sports gambling, the gambling industry is prepared to see gamblers begin to switch toward legal bets, and the hopes are that the legal industry will pick up at least $400 million, according to PlayUSA.com. A good prop bet for the upcoming NFL Championship would be an Over/Under on $400 million in legal wagers – the Over would definitely win.
There are now 13 states in the U.S. that allow legal sports wagers, giving access to over 70 million potential gamblers. The list includes Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. Compared to last year’s legal market, which only included seven states, exposure to legal gambling has more than doubled.
Forbes sports reporter Kristi Dosh quotes PlayUSA.com lead analyst Dustin Gouker as explaining, “With the proliferation of legal sports betting across the U.S., there is no doubt that this will be a record year for legal bets on the Super Bowl. An interesting matchup that is nearly a pick ’em will help spur action, too. As a result, records in states such as Nevada and New Jersey, where both online and retail sports betting were legal for last year’s game, are also in jeopardy.”
With 70 million potential gamblers ready to embrace the big game, compared to the 30 million from last year, breaking the $400-million mark shouldn’t be difficult. Given that eight of the now legal states, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia, now allow online wagers, as well, the odds for the Over on a legal gambling market prop bet to hit become even greater.
Legal online and retail sportsbooks across the country will take in $400 million in total bets for Super Bowl LIV, analysts for PlayUSA.com project. Even if less money comes in, the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs, set for Sunday, Feb. 2, will almost certainly bring in more money via legal sportsbooks than ever before.
“With the proliferation of legal sports betting across the U.S., there is no doubt that this will be a record year for legal bets on the Super Bowl,” said Dustin Gouker, lead analyst for PlayUSA.com. “An interesting matchup that is nearly a pick ’em will help spur action, too. As a result, records in states such as Nevada and New Jersey, where both online and retail sports betting were legal for last year’s game, are also in jeopardy.”
The Super Bowl is easily the most bet-on sporting event in the U.S., drawing an estimated $6 billion in legal and illegal bets in 2019, according to the American Gaming Association. That number will reach almost $7 billion in 2020, the AGA estimates.
For this year’s game, consider:
Thirteen states — Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Iowa, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Delaware, Mississippi, New Mexico, and New York — representing a combined population of 70 million, will offer a means to place a legal bet on this year’s Super Bowl.
Eight states — Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Iowa, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Oregon — offer both online and retail sports betting.
Seven states, representing a combined population of 30 million, accepted legal bets for last year’s game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. In addition, some states had yet to launch online sportsbooks, leaving retail sportsbooks as the only vehicle to place a bet in states such as Pennsylvania.
The country’s two largest sports betting markets, Nevada and New Jersey, combined to generate more than $180 million in bets for the 2019 game.
New Jersey sportsbooks, which offered legal wagering on the Super Bowl for the first time in 2019, attracted $34.9 million in bets but lost $4.6 million.
Nevada’s $145.9 million handle was the state’s second-best all-time, but down from the record $158.6 million in 2018.
“Not only has the number of legal sports jurisdictions doubled from last year’s game, states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania have boomed,” Gouker said. “That all adds up to a historic weekend ahead for sports betting.”
Kansas City is currently a consensus 1.5-point favorite over the 49ers. And with the Chiefs’ top-ranked passing attack matched up against the 49ers’ second-ranked pass defense, the over/under is now set at 54 points.
Prop bets should once again bring added attention from bettors to the game. Books will offer odds on aspects of the game that range from what player will score the first touchdown to the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach.
“Online and mobile sportsbooks are a key tool in driving in-game and prop betting, giving states with a robust digital presence a significant advantage,” Gouker said. “In New Jersey, nearly 88% of all bets were made online in December. And that allows operators to attract bettors with prop bets and keep them engaged with in-game betting.”
The countdown toward Super Bowl LIV continues. The NFL Championship game will take place this coming Sunday in Miami, Florida, and football fans around the world are getting ready to pull for their favorite teams. The San Francisco 49ers may be the underdog to the Kansas City Chiefs, but only slightly and this matchup should prove to be one of the strongest in recent Super Bowl history. With only five days and a few hours to go, it isn’t too late to get in on the prop bet action before the big game, and YardBarker has prepared a list of several of the most enticing betting opportunities.
The Chiefs are only favored by one point across most sportsbooks right now. Last year, the point spread for the New England Patriots to defeat the LA Rams was at 2.5 and, a year earlier, the Pats were favored by 6.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. The current one-point difference shows what oddsmakers expect to see this coming Sunday – a tight game with a flurry of activity on both sides of the ball.
For gamblers who want more than some straight-up action, a prop bet on Niners running back Raheem Mostert would be a good place to start. A surfer before taking to the turf, his ability to sway and balance himself carried over nicely. When the Niners beat the Green Bay Packers for the NFC Championship, he racked up 220 yards, his best run of the season. Expect him to do it again and put up a little extra spending money on the number of yards he’ll pick up on his first run. The Over/Under sits at 3.5 with -135 on the Over and there’s no doubt he’ll beat it. Easy money.
There’s a good chance that one of the two teams is going to forced into a fourth-and-long situation and, if this falls to the Niners, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have to step up and make it count. Can he, though, is the question. The prop bet for his longest completion has an Over/Under of 36.5 yards at -110 odds. Given an average longest pass this season of 47.5 yards, taking the Over is safe.
Super Bowl LIV will be held on February 2 and the biggest NFL game of the year is poised to see a lot of action, both on and off the field. The championship game is always the biggest sports gambling event in the U.S. and, now that more states have legalized the activity, even more money is expected to flow through sportsbooks across the country. Gamblers aren’t just looking at whether or not the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Kansas City Chiefs and by how much, but also some odd prop bets that are spicing things up.
Jennifer Lopez, better known as J-Lo, is set to perform during the halftime show this year and is the center of attention in more ways than one. Gamblers can take a chance on a little “butt cleavage” action, with BetOnline oddsmakers strongly believing that no risqué shots will be seen. The odds of J-Lo revealing “minor exposure of the buttocks and the intergluteal cleft between them, often because of low-rise pants” is getting -1000 that it won’t happen, and +500 that it will. Putting up a little money on it happening could prove lucrative, in more ways than one.
J-Lo is also getting odds on which song she’ll sing first. Some of the options include Let’s Get Loud, On The Floor, Get Right and Waiting For Tonight. Chances are, just like the odds aren’t good for butt cleavage, her song Booty won’t be in the lineup.
Take a piece of the action on the coin toss. This is always a favorite with gamblers and, even though there’s a 50-50 chance of making the right call, tails deserve a little more attention. Tails have won out 53% of the time and five of the past six Super Bowls. Right now, each is getting -105.
What does the Sunday of the NFL’s Divisional Round offer that Saturday‘s two games don’t? Super Bowl-winning starting quarterbacks.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
That would be the late game on Sunday as the NFC fifth-seeded Seattle Seahawks visit the No. 2 Green Bay Packers with a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff from Lambeau Field. And it could be the frozen tundra of Lambeau with a high Sunday forecast to be just 24 and a low around 20. No snow is likely. The Packers are 4-point favorites and they have won 19 of their past 22 as home favorites.
The game features future Hall of Famers Russell Wilson of the Seahawks and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers under center and both have won a Super Bowl ring. Wilson has reached the big game twice and Rodgers, surprisingly, just the one time following the 2010 season. Wilson got to his last Super Bowl following the 2014 season at Rodgers’ expense as Seattle rallied for a 28-22 overtime home win over Green Bay in that year’s NFC title game. It was the last playoff meeting between the teams.
It was a very wild Wild-Card Weekend around the NFL with every game decided by eight points or fewer and three road teams winning – the Houston Texans were the only home club to prevail. There were two overtime games, marking just the third NFL playoff round in history to feature multiple OT games, the others being the 2018 Conference Championship round and the Divisional Round in 2003.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
This season’s Divisional Round kicks off Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET as the NFC sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings visit the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers, who are 7-point favorites. San Francisco has covered only five of its past 25 games as a betting favorite, while Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 as an underdog.
The Vikings, though, were the biggest underdogs of Wild-Card Weekend but won at the third-seeded New Orleans Saints 26-20 in overtime. It was the third straight playoff meeting between those franchises that was decided on the final play of the game. It also happened following the 2017 season (remember the “Minneapolis Miracle”?) and after the 2009 campaign. It was also the first playoff victory as a starting quarterback for Kirk Cousins and it might have sent future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees of the Saints into retirement.
Sports is all about excitement—sportsbooks count on it. As legal sportsbooks across the U.S. grew over the decade, automated video highlights production platform Thuuz culled data from more than a quarter million events to determine the most exciting games of the last 10 years.
“We all have our memorable moments, but what we have been able to
do, and do every day, is measure the overall excitement in a wide
range of sports events to produce this very special list,” said
Warren Packard, Thuuz CEO. “This amazing cross section from around
the world shows the global nature of sports fandom and provides us
with a unique snapshot on what really made hearts pound the last ten
years.”
Using their
custom designed algorithms to measure real-time event excitement,
Thuuz provides a unique look into what games have gotten fans the
most excited and engaged through the close of 2019.
The game
excitement ratings are measured on a 0 to 100 scale and take into
consideration game pace, team parity, play novelty, momentum shifts,
social buzz, and historical context. The algorithms behind the
excitement ratings are statistically calibrated to insure the
appropriate distribution of ratings across the duration of a season
or course of a tournament.
Using the Thuuz
excitement measurement platform, the top ten most exciting games of
the decade were:
New England
Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 (NFL): 2/5/2017. The Patriots
rally to claim their Super Bowl title in one of the greatest
comebacks in NFL history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=016LXFHpFCk
St. Louis
Cardinals 10 Texas Rangers 9 (MLB): 10/27/2011 David Freese late
game heroics created an instant heart stopping classic and helped
lead the Cardinals to the World Series title.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4cd3XzzqMw
FC Barcelona 6
PSG 1 (UCL): 3/8/2017 Barca was down 4-0 after 1st leg and had to
rally with a massive comeback, the greatest comeback in Champions
League 2 leg history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CgHT6_leeI
Novak Djokovic
vs Rafael Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7 (5), 7-5 (ATP): 1/29/2012:
Probably the greatest tennis match ever in 5+ hour epic took place
Down Under in the Australian Open final Aussie Open Final.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kaaXz4IgrA
Villanova
Wildcats 77, North Carolina Tar Heels 74 (NCAAMB): 4/4/2016:
Villanova goes end to end with Kris Jenkins buzzer beater giving the
Wildcats the national title.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFKZ84aV-qw
While the AFC has Saturday all to itself on Wild-Card Weekend, the NFC takes the stage on Sunday with its two games.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
At 1:05 p.m. ET, the sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings visit the No. 3 New Orleans Saints. The current NFL playoff format began in 1992 and just twice previously had a team with 13 victories not earned a first-round playoff bye. The 2019 Saints became the third despite tying for the conference’s best record. The Saints lost a head-to-head tiebreaker with No. 1 San Francisco thanks to a last-second 48-46 loss to the Niners in Week 14. That’s the only defeat for the Saints in their past seven games.
New Orleans lost the tiebreaker for the second seed with Green Bay because the Packers had a 10-2 record against the NFC compared to a 9-3 mark for the Saints. Both the Niners and Packers nearly lost in Week 17 and then New Orleans would have been the No. 1. It was last year with the same 13-3 mark.
After 17 short weeks, the NFL season is finally coming to a close. But with the playoffs just days away, the betting never stops, and our Bodog insider was hard at work as all the last games came to an end.
Packers @ Lions
A big mismatch and a huge comeback combined to make a lot of pain for the house in Detroit. “The Packers closed as -13.5 road favorites against the disappointing Lions,” our insider noted. “The Packers started off slow falling behind 20-3 but if the Lions are known for anything it’s falling apart in the 2nd half of games that they’re winning. The Packers in-game moneyline got as high as 3/1 leading to the biggest live betting loss of the day.”
The NFL doesn’t schedule a prime-time game in Week 17 because it wants to put the most important, drama-filled matchup in that slot. Ideally, a game where it’s a winner-take-all for a playoff spot.
For Week 17, the game flexed to prime time was San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, a no-brainer. Both are in the playoffs regardless but the winner is not just the NFC West champion but also could be the top overall seed in the conference. The Niners would be with a victory, but the Seahawks would need a win and some help earlier in the day. Seattle visited San Francisco in Week 10 when then Niners were the NFL’s last unbeaten team at 8-0, and the Seahawks pulled off a 27-24 overtime upset. Jason Myers kicked a 42-yard field goal as time expired in the OT. This time, the Niners are -3.5 with Seattle covering its past nine as a home dog.
The Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets in a 1 p.m. ET game, and bettors should expect the Bills to not play some of their most important players like quarterback Josh Allen and cornerback Tre’Davious White very deep into the game (they will allegedly start). That’s because Buffalo is locked into the No. 5 seed as the AFC’s top Wild-Card team and will visit whichever division champion is seeded fourth next weekend. No reason for Buffalo coach Sean McDermott to risk injury to his top starters in Week 17. The Bills rallied from a 16-0 third-quarter deficit in Week 1 to stun the Jets 17-16. Buffalo is -2 and is 5-2 ATS in its past seven games against the AFC East.
For some of us, it’s a little hard to focus on the holiday season with so much good football going on. We doubt that our Bodog insider had any time for last minute shopping, as he was glued to his screens and keeping tabs on the NFL action. We have some of his thoughts once again for you.
Biggest Liability –
The old adage always goes that you have to take the season week by week. Tennessee should have stuck to that theory. “With the Titans potentially looking ahead to next week’s division winner-take-all vs Houston the vast majority of bettors backed the Saints at -3, pushing the handicap to -3.5 by kickoff,” our insider noted. “While the Titans jumped out to an early lead, the Saints dominated the 2nd half and punched in a late score to clinch the win and the cover, 38-28.”
The regular season of the NFL is drawing to a close, with only a handful of teams vying for a position in the postseason. Along with the end of the season, the league, teams and players make their choices for a variety of awards and honors to be doled out, and one of these is the NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award. Oddsmakers have taken to the boards to put up the favorites to win and, of all the possibilities available, one player stands out among the crowd for the honor and could be the first in his position in ten years to take home the prize.
Only six cornerbacks in the history of the NFL have ever won the DPOY award – only one of these was in the past decade. Stephon Gilmore of the New England Patriots could be the seventh, and is coming off an incredible year. His name has been mentioned a lot this season, but it wasn’t until Week 15 that he powered his way to the top of the list, thanks to his performance against the Cincinnati Bengals.
During that game, Gilmore picked up two interceptions, one of which he ran all the way back for a touchdown from the Pats own 40-yard line. He also picked up two tackles and deflected four passes as the Pats rolled over the Bengals, 34-13.
Before that game, Aaron Donald of the LA Rams had been the favorite among oddsmakers for the DPOY. The defensive tackle has also shown a lot of depth this year, but Gilmore’s actions propelled him over Donald and, according to BetOnline, put him at -300 for the award. Donald is the next closest, but at a distant +600.
Every year after the college football regular season wraps up – which happened last Saturday with the Army vs. Navy game – the NFL stages at least a couple of games on a Saturday to fill the void because the Thursday night NFL slate ends in Week 15 each year. This Saturday to kick off Week 16 the league offers up three games ahead of every team playing on Sunday in Week 17.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
The opener at 1 p.m. ET is the Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3-point home underdogs. The Bucs are playing out the string and will miss the playoffs for a 12th straight season, the second-longest drought in the NFL behind Cleveland. Tampa Bay at least has shown improvement in 2019 under first-year coach Bruce Arians after winning just five games each of the previous two years under then-coach Dirk Koetter.
Houston is chasing the AFC South title and if not then a Wild-Card spot. The Texans won a huge game at the Tennessee Titans last Sunday to take sole possession of first in the division and turn around and host Tennessee in Week 17 in a game that could determine the South champion. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite.
After a contentious history in California that included multiple relocations, the Oakland Raiders are packing up and moving away. The team started out in Oakland before relocating, against the wishes of the NFL, to Los Angeles and, later, back to Oakland once again. The team just played its last game at the Oakland Coliseum on Sunday, their playoff hopes dashed. If they had hoped to go out on a high note, the players missed their chance and the farewell they received was anything but pleasant.
The Raiders took on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that everyone knew would be tough. However, the Raiders had plenty of opportunities to take the victory, having led 16-3 as the first half came to a close. The second half was a complete shutout, as the Jaguars rallied to take the lead and the victory with 17 unanswered points on the board.
That defeat was the icing on the cake, the memory the Raiders leave behind to their fans. They started out relatively strong with the season began, taking a solid 6-4 record until they hit Week 11. From there, things started to disintegrate and they lost their next four games.
Sunday night saw the culmination of frustration on the part of the fans, more than a little upset over the loss and the team’s imminent relocation to Las Vegas. As the team left the field, dejected and embarrassed, they were pelted with food and beverages among a chorus of boos and negative chants – certainly not the way they would have hoped to be remembered.
As the season winds down, some favorites are starting to stumble, making bad mistakes at the last minute, while unexpected contenders are starting to emerge. We get the inside scoup from our Bodog insider on which games stuck out in week 15, and what he’s watching closely as we go into the week before Christmas.
Bad beat alert
Washington just haven’t been good this year, but with the Eagles being mediocre, plenty might have bet on D.C,’s team to cover the spread. “The Washington Redskins were 7 point underdogs and had a 27-24 lead with 36 seconds left in the 4th quarter,” our insider noted. “The Eagles scored a touchdown on 4th and goal and on the last play of the game Dwayne Haskins was sacked and stripped as the Eagles returned the fumble for 6 as time expired for a 37-27 win.”
The vast majority of Dallas Cowboys fans want head coach Jason Garrett fired right now. The Cowboys have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL without question yet sit at 6-7 and have lost three straight games and four of five. They were embarrassed at home on Thanksgiving by the Buffalo Bills and again last Thursday at the Chicago Bears.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
After the Bears loss, owner Jerry Jones re-confirmed he wasn’t going to fire Garrett during the season, but it’s fait accompli that he’s a goner once it’s over – barring a run to the Super Bowl. Dallas is still tied for first in the incredibly weak NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in a rematch of a Divisional Round playoff game from last season. The Rams won that 30-22 in Los Angeles. This time, the Rams are -2. They have covered seven of their past eight on the road.
Philadelphia visits the Washington Redskins on Sunday as the Eagles go for the season sweep of their NFC East rivals. Philly won 32-27 at home in Week 1, rallying from a 17-0 second-quarter deficit and 20-7 halftime hole. Washington wouldn’t score again until six seconds were left in the game. It’s a short week for the Eagles after rallying to beat the New York Giants on Monday, and Philadelphia needs to avoid looking ahead to a huge Week 16 home showdown with Dallas. The Eagles are -4.5 and have won the past five in this series by an average of 13.4 points.
The NFL doesn’t want teams playing on very short weeks in the final two games of the season so this Thursday’s New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens matchup to kick off Week 15 is the final Thursday game of the year. There will be three Saturday games in Week 16 and then every game is played on Sunday in Week 17.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
This might be the Thursday mismatch of the season with the Ravens as 15-point favorites. New York has lost its past six trips to the Ravens, covering just once. Baltimore is charging toward the top seed in the AFC playoffs and has supplanted the New England Patriots as the overall favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Ravens have clinched at least a Wild-Card spot and clinch the AFC North this week with a victory.
It’s the first meeting between second-year quarterbacks in the Jets’ Sam Darnold and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. New York traded up to No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft and took Darnold out of USC, while Baltimore traded back into the final spot of the first round and took the former Heisman winner Jackson out of Louisville.
We’re just a few short weeks away from the NFL playoffs, and the league’s championship hopefuls are vying for position. To see where the smart money landed this past week, we once again checked in with our Bodog insider to see how the house faired.
Biggest Liability
Although Los Angeles doesn’t look like the Super Bowl finalist of last year, they are still very much in contention, and wrecking lines for the house. “The Seahawks closed as -1 favorites against the Rams, a division rival that’s struggled coming off a Super Bowl loss,” our insider noted. “The Rams defense kept Russell Wilson in check and Jared Goff battled through a couple turnovers to ultimately lead LA to victory.”
“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
George Orwell, 1984
On November 15th, at the end of a game against archrival Pittsburgh, Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett got into a very public brawl -on live TV, in fact- with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. After tackling Rudolph, Garrett continued to fight, which is unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness. And then Garrett tore off Rudolph’s helmet and used it as a club, pounding Rudolph on the head repeatedly. That’s aggravated assault, and even possibly assault with a deadly weapon. No criminal charges were filed, but Garrett found himself fined and suspended for the rest of this football season, including any postseason games.
